Tridib Raman
Most exit polls are suggesting that Bengal is turning saffron, and this has sparked a new wave of excitement among BJP cadres. However, there are also two major local Bengali news channels that are predicting a victory for the Trinamool Congress (TMC) once again. Let us first talk about Network18, owned by Ambani, which in its exit poll results is projecting 161 seats for the Trinamool Congress, 71 for the BJP, and 49 seats as too close to call, meaning these seats could go either way, to TMC or BJP. On the other hand, the Bengali news channel ABP Ananda, part of the Anandabazar Group, is predicting 177–187 seats for the Trinamool Congress and around 100 seats for the BJP. Meanwhile, a major survey agency, Axis My India, has not made its exit poll results public at all. It is worth noting that this is the same agency led by Pradeep Gupta which, during the 2024 Lok Sabha election exit polls, had predicted over 400 seats for the NDA and 336 seats for the BJP. In reality, however, the BJP was limited to just 240 seats. A leading Bengali daily newspaper is also estimating that the BJP will secure 112–118 seats this time, while giving around 170 seats to the Trinamool Congress. At the same time, sources linked to the BJP claim that even the Intelligence Bureau (IB), in its report, has projected 156–178 seats for the BJP in Bengal, while showing the Trinamool at just 138 seats. Another BJP source claims, “This time the party is confident of its victory here; that is why repolling had to be conducted at only 15 polling booths.” Since the environment was already influenced by exit poll results, if the BJP had not been so confident, repolling could have been conducted at more booths. This is because, after exit poll trends, floating voters tend to gravitate toward the party perceived as winning, in this case, the BJP. On Saturday, Mamata also faced a setback in the Supreme Court, when during an urgent hearing on a petition filed by the Trinamool Congress, the court made it clear that it would not interfere in the functioning of the Election Commission. It is worth noting that the TMC had challenged the Election Commission’s decision to deploy employees from the central government or public sector undertakings (PSUs) for counting votes in the assembly elections.
G.P. Singh May Become the New CBI Director
Tridib Raman
Gyanendra Pratap Singh (G.P. Singh, a 1991-batch IPS officer of the Assam-Meghalaya cadre, may soon be rewarded for his outstanding service in the Bengal elections. He is being seen as a possible successor to the current CBI Director Praveen Sood. Praveen Sood, an IIT Delhi graduate, was appointed CBI Director in May 2023 for a period of two years, and in May 2025, he was granted a one-year extension. Now, his extended tenure is also set to end this very month. G.P. Singh, who hails from Aligarh in Uttar Pradesh, served as the DGP of Assam Police from 2023 to 2025. Thereafter, on January 30, 2025, he assumed charge as Director General of the central police force CRPF. In this round of Bengal elections, CRPF personnel were deployed extensively down to the booth level. With their alertness, they managed, to a large extent, to ensure a violence-free election in Bengal. It is said that this proactive role of the CRPF has further enhanced G.P. Singh’s image in the eyes of those at the top of power. Signals suggest that he may soon be rewarded for this, and discussions are now rippling across Raisina Hills that he could be appointed the country’s next CBI Director in place of Praveen Sood.
Will the IB Director Also Get an Extension?
Tridib Raman
In the recent Bengal elections, IB Director Tapan Deka has also found an opportunity to further flourish in the eyes of the top leadership. It is said that the Home Minister himself is impressed by Deka’s ground-level reports. Deka, who hails from Barpeta in Assam, is a 1988-batch IPS officer of the Himachal cadre and is considered very close to National Security Advisor Ajit Doval. He was appointed IB Director until June 2025 and later granted an extension until June 2026. Now, indications are that, going against established conventions, he may receive yet another extension. In any case, he already holds the record for being the longest-serving IB chief, and if granted another year, that record would only grow stronger.
Kejriwal Girding Up for a New Innings
Tridib Raman
Having been burnt once, Kejriwal is now blowing even on buttermilk before drinking it, extremely cautious, alert, and back in his old avatar. He has once again shifted his base to Punjab. Ahead of the Punjab elections, he does not want any further cracks within his party. Therefore, he has started personally overseeing even the smallest matters within the party. Sources say that to sharpen electoral strategies, keep the cadre united, and expand it further, Kejriwal has set up a new “war room,” where he has already held at least three closed-door meetings with his core strategists. In these meetings, detailed deliberations took place on several issues like how to strengthen the organization again at the booth level, identify influential local figures and bring them into the party fold, raise election funds, and carry out an image makeover for the Aam Aadmi Party. It is worth noting that earlier, Kejriwal had entrusted these responsibilities to his close aide Sandeep Pathak, who used to gather data, analyze it, identify cadre strength, and keep it active. But once Pathak turned disloyal, he defected to the BJP, taking along with him crucial planning and data of AAP. This was a major setback for the party. According to sources, in these difficult political circumstances, Mamata Banerjee emerged as a saviour for Kejriwal by immediately sending a team of her own and I-PAC strategists to Punjab to assist him. They are now working on executing AAP’s new election strategies. At the same time, Kejriwal is in no mood to forgive his “betrayers.” After Rajya Sabha member Rajendra Gupta, who left AAP for the BJP, his Trident Group factory was raided by the Punjab Pollution Control Board. Meanwhile, two non-bailable FIRs have been registered against Sandeep Pathak. It is said that when a Punjab Police team reached Pathak’s Delhi residence in search of him, he managed to escape just in time through the back door.
Nitish Uneasy Over Nishant
Tridib Raman
For a staunch socialist leader like Nitish Kumar, former Chief Minister of Bihar, this display of affection toward his son appears somewhat new. It is said that he is fully prepared to pass on his political legacy to his son Nishant Kumar, but Nishant’s political grooming is still not mature enough. Therefore, it is believed that Nitish has entrusted a close circle of confidants and old friends with the responsibility of politically preparing Nishant, with leadership of this effort largely resting with his trusted aide Shravan Kumar. Shravan has been Nitish’s associate since the days of the JP movement. It is also believed that Nishant’s “Sadbhav Yatra,” beginning Sunday, May 3, has the tacit support of the RSS from behind the scenes. The yatra will take place in multiple phases. The first phase will begin from Bagaha on May 3–4, followed by the second phase starting from Vaishali on May 7. The main objective of this yatra is to strengthen the party’s grassroots base, establish direct communication with the cadre, and enable Nishant to interact face-to-face with workers from panchayat to district levels. Although Nishant currently holds no formal position in the party or government, and has himself declined any such role for now, a gathering of senior JD(U) leaders is already forming around him. During the yatra, apart from Shravan Kumar, several MPs, MLAs, and village heads may accompany Nishant. Meanwhile, Nitish will be kept updated about every development of the journey. These days, his health is somewhat fragile; he is under the supervision of a London-based doctor, while coordination of his treatment in India is being handled by a former neurosurgeon from AIIMS, currently heading the neurology department at a major hospital in Vasant Kunj, Delhi. The doctor is originally from Hazaribagh, Jharkhand, and enjoys Nitish’s deep trust.
Who Will Replace Himanta?
Tridib Raman
Midway through the Bengal elections, about nine top bureaucrats from Assam met a key BJP strategist at a five-star hotel in New Town, Kolkata. The meeting reportedly lasted around an hour. The agenda was: if the BJP returns to power in Assam, should Himanta Biswa Sarma be made Chief Minister again? What does the public want? What is the public mood? What should be the blueprint of the new government? What should be the agenda for the first 100 days? As soon as Himanta got wind of this meeting, he rushed to the hotel (he too was in Bengal for campaigning at the time), but reportedly could not meet the strategist. He was told to come to Delhi after May 4. Since then, it is said, Himanta’s heart has been pounding restlessly.
Is the Punjab Government Safe?
Tridib Raman
When Raghav Chadha joined the BJP, he did not come alone with six other Rajya Sabha MPs; he had also made several promises to the BJP leadership. It is understood that he had even handed over a list of 30 AAP MLAs from Punjab, claiming that he could topple the Mann government anytime, as these MLAs were ready to defect to the BJP. However, as soon as Raghav turned saffron, he lost 2.5 million Instagram followers, along with another one million followers across other digital platforms. Negative coverage against him flooded Punjab’s newspapers and social media. Seeing this, those 30 “rebel” MLAs changed their stance and stopped taking his calls. Now, an angry Raghav is reportedly handing over detailed dossiers (“horoscopes”) of these MLAs to the BJP, insisting that the classic political playbook of persuasion, incentives, punishment, and division always works in politics.
Samrat Choudhary Recasts Image via Bureaucratic Reshuffle
The mantle of leadership of the Bihar government is gradually beginning to sit very well with the state’s newly appointed Chief Minister, Samrat Choudhary. At the outset, he appears focused on reshaping his public image and, on the lines of Yogi Adityanath, wants to cultivate the persona of a tough administrator. In the coming days, Bihar’s bureaucracy may witness a sweeping reshuffle. For now, the new Chief Minister is engaged in identifying officers he considers both capable and personally dependable. In this context, the first name that comes up is Pratyaya Amrit, a 1991-batch IAS officer of the Bihar cadre, who is currently serving as the Chief Secretary of the state. He still has a considerable tenure left, with his retirement due in 2029. Counted among highly competent officers, he has also been honored with the Prime Minister’s Award for Excellence in Public Administration. Extending electricity to rural areas and improving Bihar’s road and bridge network are achievements credited to him. He is regarded as one of Samrat’s favored officers. For the position of Principal Secretary, Samrat is keen on bringing in Sanjay Kumar. As for the post of Director General of Police (DGP), two names are currently in contention. The first strong claimant is Kundan Krishnan, a native of Nalanda and belonging to the Kurmi community, the same caste as Nitish Kumar. Another name in the race is Jitendra Singh Gangwar, who is presently serving as DG Civil Defence. His brother is also an IAS officer. Additionally, Vinay Kumar, who belongs to the Bhumihar community, is also staking a claim for the DGP position.
