Tridib Raman
Normally, the Sangh (RSS) does not have any declared official mechanism to evaluate the performance of Chief Ministers or ministers. However, according to sources, the Sangh is currently taking the performance of BJP-ruled states’ Chief Ministers quite seriously. This is perhaps also because in the last few elections, it had to put in its full effort to keep the saffron flag flying in the states. The Sangh had set several parameters to assess the performance of saffron Chief Ministers. These include review of their work, coordination with the organization, concern for personal image, honesty and transparency in functioning, influence within their own community/caste, their vision or future roadmap for the state, coordination with the bureaucracy, direct dialogue with the public, etc. According to sources, in this survey, Devendra Fadnavis has surprisingly emerged at the top. The ratings of Chhattisgarh Chief Minister Vishnu Dev Sai and Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath have also been quite good. Odisha’s saffron CM Mohan Charan Majhi has received an average rating. Meanwhile, several states have faced negative marking from the Sangh notably Rajasthan, Uttarakhand, and Assam. The Sangh’s own assessment is that “if things continue as they are in Rajasthan and Uttarakhand, it will be difficult for BJP to return to power in these states next time.” Concerns have been expressed regarding Assam Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma’s style of functioning and his stubborn behaviour. The Sangh’s recommendation is that “BJP needs a Chief Minister in every state who is capable of taking everyone along.” Sources say that this rating chart of Chief Ministers has been handed over to the BJP top leadership with the request that “when the right time comes, the high command should not hesitate to take the right decisions.”
Who Will Replace BL Santhosh? Limaye or Shiv Prakash?
Tridib Raman
In the coming days, BJP President Nitin Nabin’s new team may be announced. The announcement has been pending for quite some time. Sources reveal that Nitin’s new team will be packed with young talent. To balance it, some experienced old faces have also been retained. For example, experienced strategists like Vinod Tawde and Sunil Bansal are likely to retain their positions in the new team of General Secretaries. The most speculation surrounds the possible departure of BJP’s National General Secretary (Organisation) BL Santhosh. It is believed that the BJP high command is not at all happy with Santhosh’s style of functioning, especially his unnecessary interference and role in Karnataka, which has often drawn criticism. However, it is said that he has been given protection until the upcoming Dussehra, and this has happened on the recommendation of the Sangh. The Sangh leadership believes that BL Santhosh can only be replaced after the Dussehra programme celebrating the completion of 100 years of the Sangh concludes. This is because he has been deeply involved in the preparations for the Sangh’s centenary celebrations for a long time and has worked continuously to build bridges of communication between the Sangh and BJP. But the biggest question now is: if BL Santhosh is removed immediately after Dussehra, who will take his place? Currently, two names are being discussed most prominently as strong contenders for the post of National General Secretary (Organisation). The first is Shiv Prakash, who is currently a Joint National General Secretary and has been working shoulder-to-shoulder with BL Santhosh. It is worth noting that the Sangh had deputed this swayamsevak to the BJP in 2014. He has worked with both Amit Shah and J.P. Nadda during their tenures as BJP presidents. The second name is that of Atul Limaye, a 54-year-old Joint General Secretary of the Sangh. By profession an engineer, he played a significant role in securing victory for the BJP-led Mahayuti alliance in the recent Maharashtra Assembly elections.
Bankipur By-Election Becomes Prestige Battle for Nitin Nabin
The Bankipur by-election has now become a matter of prestige for BJP national president Nitin Nabin. Although the BJP is also throwing everything it has into this fight, even behind the scenes the BJP is equally active. So, when Rahul wanted PK to be the joint opposition candidate from here, Tejashwi rejected his argument and fielded the RJD’s authorized candidate, Rekha Gupta, from here. Now accusations are being leveled against Tejashwi that he has formed a ‘tactical alliance’ with the BJP on this seat because Kayastha votes are the most decisive here, besides which there is also a significant number of Bania, Yadav, and backward caste votes. Rekha Kumari Gupta is a local here, has good penetration among Bania voters, and is also capable of making inroads among backward voters. So, in such a situation, Prashant Kishor of the Jan Suraaj Party will be left with only the support of forward caste voters. So, the fight here could be triangular, yet observers believe that the main battle here will be between the BJP and PK.
Is Nitin Nabin Angry?
On one hand, the Bankipur seat has become a matter of prestige for BJP President Nitin Nabin. On the other hand, reports of his displeasure over the party’s changed candidate, Neeraj Kumar Sinha, continue to surface. It is also being said that the BJP high command announced Neeraj Sinha’s name in place of Abhishek Bunty without even consulting him. His anger was evident from the fact that he did not even congratulate Neeraj for a full day after his candidature was announced. The Bankipur seat in Patna is considered a traditional family seat for the Nabin family. It was earlier held by Nitin Nabin’s late father, Naveen Kishore Sinha. After his demise, the seat passed to Nitin Nabin, who has been elected as MLA from here for the past five consecutive terms. This time, when Nitin took up a Rajya Sabha seat and resigned, the constituency fell vacant. When the by-election was announced, BJP’s Chanakya called Nitin and said, “Since this seat has always remained with your family, you may suggest two names of your preferred candidates.” It is said that Nitin suggested the name of his PA, Ajit Kumar Lali, as the first choice, and his close aide Abhishek Bunty as the second. Lali had also served as PA to Nitin’s father. The BJP Chanakya explained to him that giving a ticket to one’s own PA could set a wrong precedent in the party. The decision ultimately fell in favour of Abhishek Kumar Bunty. Bunty was busy preparing for the election when, within a few days, Chanakya reportedly received a call from PK (Prashant Kishor). PK said, “I have got hold of a sensational CD of your candidate. Either you change him, or I will hold a press conference and expose the entire matter.” Fearing damage to the party’s reputation, Delhi immediately replaced Bunty with a relatively unknown party worker, Neeraj Sinha. Even the party president was reportedly not informed about this name initially.
What’s on Manish’s Mind?
Can Chandigarh MP Manish Tewari, who is upset over continuous neglect within the Congress party, take any decisive political step? Despite remaining in the Congress for nearly four decades, speculation about Tewari turning saffron or joining the BJP has intensified. These rumours gained further traction when Manish was seen on stage with Prime Minister Narendra Modi during his Chandigarh rally this Friday. Notably, on 17 July, PM Modi inaugurated several development projects in Chandigarh and Manish’s former parliamentary constituency, Anandpur Sahib. However, Manish later clarified the matter on ‘X’. But is it merely a coincidence that just a month earlier, he had also met Union Home Minister Amit Shah in Delhi? He had gone with a list of problems related to his parliamentary area. Sources say that during the conversation, the Home Minister told Manish, “You give me the list of your work, it will be done. I just wanted to know when you will free yourself from the place where you feel so suffocated. Our doors are open for you.” Manish had laughed it off at the time and said that he had been a Congressman for the last forty years and wished to remain one. However, he has repeatedly raised questions about the Congress leadership’s style of functioning. His concern has particularly increased regarding the upcoming Punjab Assembly elections. Manish is unable to understand why the party high command is showing such indifference towards him. He has not been given any responsibility in the state Congress, nor made election in-charge, nor assigned any significant role related to the elections. The Congress is apparently focused only on pleasing Jat Sikh and Dalit voters in the state, which is why it has bet on faces like Vadde and Channi. Leaders like Pratap Singh Bajwa and Randhawa are also being given importance. However, despite knowing that Hindu voters still constitute a decisive 39% in Punjab, the Congress leadership is paying no attention to Hindu leaders When Captain Amarinder Singh was in power, he had handed over the reins of the Punjab Congress Committee to a Hindu leader, Sunil Jakhar. Sources say that Manish recently got an extensive public opinion survey conducted across Punjab at his own expense, covering all 117 Assembly seats. The results of the survey are startling. It claims that “if elections are held in Punjab today, the Aam Aadmi Party has a swing of 4-5 percent votes, meaning it can win 60-70 percent of the seats.” This could indeed serve as a danger alarm for the Congress high command.
What Will Sharad Pawar Do?
The master player of politics, Sharad Pawar, does not want his party’s fate to be like that of the Trinamool Congress. That is why, even in these adverse political circumstances, he is treading every step very cautiously. Sharad Pawar is deeply aware that ‘the saffron party also has its crooked eye on his NCP.’ He got full confirmation of this when he had called a crucial meeting of all eight Lok Sabha MPs of his party at his residence in Mumbai, but the senior Pawar was surprised to see that even in the meeting called by him, 5 MPs of his own party did not turn up. Only two reached his house, and another party MP, his daughter Supriya Sule, was already present there. Actually, Pawar had called this meeting to strategize for his party’s role in the monsoon session of Parliament. Then Pawar came to know that his 5 or 6 MPs are in contact with the BJP. But he did not lose his temper like Mamata Banerjee; instead, he personally called each MP who was absent from the meeting. The one common reply from these MPs was, ‘We should support the NDA on the delimitation bill.’ Pawar said, ‘Tathastu’ (so be it). After this, a statement duly came from Supriya Sule that ‘their party supports the delimitation bill.’ However, a few days later, Supriya Sule also went to Jantar Mantar in Delhi to support the ‘Cockroach Party’ and Sonam Wangchuk, who are running an anti-central government movement – perhaps this is what you call the jugglery of maintaining political balance.
Will the Sangh Give a Clean Chit to Champat Rai?
A few days ago, an important meeting of the RSS was convened in Uttar Pradesh, in which pracharaks from various levels, from department pracharaks and region pracharaks to province pracharaks, were present. The meeting was called to thoroughly examine the issue of ‘chanda chori’ at the Ram Mandir and its nationwide repercussions. It was also meant to decide the Sangh’s ‘counter-attack’ strategy on this matter. First, senior leaders were given the chance to speak. Almost all of them, in one voice, strongly criticised ‘Champat Rai and his group’. They said, “This entire episode has tarnished the image of the Sangh, its affiliated organisations, and the BJP’s central and state governments across the country. If the guilty are let off this time, it will set a wrong precedent.” However, when it was the turn of relatively junior leaders to speak, they surprisingly came out in defence of Champat Rai and his team. They said, “We cannot simply turn our faces away by saying that Champat Rai belongs to the Vishva Hindu Parishad (VHP) and not to us. Even if we say that the VHP is not ours, who will believe it? You say we are one family. We too left our families at the age of 20-22 to join the Sangh. If there is a crisis today, then it is the duty of the elders in the family to protect the younger ones.” The big question now is, will the Sangh give a clean chit to ‘Chanda Champat’ in this case?
