Tridib Raman
In this Bihar Assembly election, miracles deserve a salute. Even BJP and RSS insiders did not expect that the NDA would score such a massive victory that the performance would cross the 200-seat mark. After Modi and Shah, the two BJP leaders who appeared the most active in this campaign were Union Ministers Dharmendra Pradhan and C. R. Patil. Dharmendra Pradhan was not only responsible for steering the BJP’s election management but was also tasked with maintaining coordination among the NDA’s constituent parties. C. R. Patil, meanwhile, handled the “macro management” of the entire campaign and also oversaw the crucial booth-level operations. Pradhan’s Bihar connection first began in 2010, when he was appointed the BJP’s in-charge for the state. In a sudden development, just before the 2025 election, the BJP again appointed him as the Bihar election in-charge in September, replacing Vinod Tawde. Pradhan is counted among the most trusted confidantes of BJP’s Chanakya, Amit Shah. In 2010, when Pradhan was appointed in-charge, NDA won a record 206 seats in Bihar. Two years later, he was sent to the Rajya Sabha from Bihar. Every election assignment he was given resulted in the lotus blooming. Recently, he had been overseeing Odisha and Haryana, and the BJP registered victories in both states. No surprise the BJP leadership sent him to Bihar on the eve of the elections with great expectations, and Pradhan lived up to them. Pradhan is an OBC leader, which added to his suitability for the saffron game plan in Bihar. He managed coordination among NDA partners efficiently. And when BJP announced its candidate list, a large number of rebels rose in protest. Pradhan prepared a tight strategy to deal with them. Those who agreed were accommodated, and those who refused were confronted with tough political challenges. BJP sources say, “If everything goes according to the leadership’s expectations, it will not be surprising if Dharmendra Pradhan becomes the party’s new national president in the coming new year.”
How C R Patil Rewrote Ground Strategy in Bihar
Tridib Raman
This time, the responsibility of “macro management” in the Bihar election was handed to Union Minister C R Patil, who belongs to the Patidar community of Gujarat. Though originally from Jalgaon in Maharashtra, his political base has always been Gujarat. He is considered a master of both macro and micro electoral management, and equally skilled in organisational work. In Bihar, he carved out an identity as a Kurmi leader. Within the BJP, both Modi and Shah consider him highly reliable. He had worked in Bihar earlier in 2015. This time, he too was sent to Bihar in September 2025 as co-in-charge alongside Dharmendra Pradhan. Patil identified several strongholds of the RJD, including Raghopur, and engineered major ground-level shifts that forced Tejashwi Yadav to fight extremely hard to secure victory there. Patil is also known for his expertise in booth management. For aggressive and smooth booth operations in Bihar, he even brought party workers from Gujarat. He addressed non-resident Biharis through video conferencing, urging them to vote. And when these migrant voters wanted to return to their workplaces after casting their votes, Patil arranged everything from special trains to special buses for them. So just as Dharmendra Pradhan’s stature rose significantly after the Bihar election, C R Patil’s stature has risen in parallel. In the near future, his influence within the party is also likely to grow further.
Why did the Left Stumble?
Tridib Raman
In the previous 2020 Bihar Legislative Assembly elections, the performance of the left parties was spectacular. In that election, the Grand Alliance had left only 29 seats for the left parties, out of which the red flag had flown on 16 seats. The most astounding performance was that of the CPI(ML) led by Dipankar Bhattacharya, which had bagged 19 of the Grand Alliance’s seats in 2020, winning 12 seats with a 3.16 percent vote share. This time, the ML was given 20 seats to contest, and speaking of the entire left coalition, it was given 33 seats, which also includes 9 seats for the CPI and 2 for the CPM. But this time, the left coalition has fallen flat on its face. The CPI(ML), which was ranked as the fifth largest party in the state in 2020, this time had to settle for just 2 seats with a 2.8 percent vote share. The left party lost the Ajan Reserve seat by a mere 95 votes. Similarly, in seats like Dumrao and Ziradei, they lost the election by just a few thousand votes. Political observers claim that this time, while the left parties’ own cadre votes remained united as before, they did not get the support of forward caste voters; even their OBC and EBC vote banks were breached.
Why Did Omar Lose in His Own Stronghold?
Tridib Raman
In this by-election, Omar Abdullah’s National Conference has suffered a setback right in its own stronghold, Budgam. It appears that Mehbooba Mufti’s PDP has snatched this bite straight from Omar’s hands. It should be remembered that Budgam, located on the outskirts of Srinagar, has always been counted as one of the strongest bastions of the Farooq Abdullah family and the National Conference. This time, for the first time since 1977, the NC has lost this seat. And that too in a situation where Omar had turned the Budgam by-election into a matter of personal prestige and was himself leading the entire campaign. It is generally seen that by-election seats usually go in favour of the ruling party. It should also be noted that in this election cycle, Omar had won from two seats, one of which was Budgam. This time, by taking this seat away from the Abdullah family, the PDP has revived memories of 2002, when Omar had even lost the family’s traditional Ganderbal seat. Omar is already battling on several fronts within his own party. The rebellious posture of Ruhullah, the current NC MP from Srinagar, has added fresh wrinkles to Omar’s forehead. People are holding the NC’s defeat in the by-election to Omar’s perceived friendly attitude towards the central government and the BJP. In the recent Jammu and Kashmir election, Omar and his NC had forcefully proclaimed that they would definitely restore full statehood to Jammu and Kashmir. But Omar’s flexible approach towards the BJP and the central government has planted new seeds of doubt in the minds of the Kashmiri public. Perhaps Omar may have to pay the price for this in the time to come.
What Will Happen to PK Now?
Tridib Raman
After staging dramatic political performances from behind the curtain and announcing the arrival of a new political era in Bihar, what will now happen to Prashant Kishor (PK) and his newly created Jan Suraaj Party? That too in a situation where his party could not even secure a 2 percent vote share in Bihar, and the deposits of 236 out of his 238 candidates have already been forfeited. PK had, in fact, prepared an “exit window” for himself even before the election by declaring that if Nitish Kumar’s JD(U) won more than 25 seats, he would quit politics. And since Nitish has almost doubled his 2020 tally this time (winning 85 seats), will this give PK an excuse to walk out of Bihar? According to sources, even though PK’s performance in this election was weak, he has still given his “political masters” (Modi and Shah) a reason to smile through the new narrative he injected into Bihar. Remember, when PK first entered the electoral battlefield in Bihar, the opposition parties were raising issues like caste census, SIR and voter fraud. PK shifted the political narrative by attacking certain BJP lieutenants themselves, diverting the entire election discourse and freeing the NDA from these burning issues. In every interview, PK kept saying that his party would either soar to the sky or fall to the floor in this election. His words were: “Jan Suraaj will either cross 170 seats or we will remain below 10.” Now Jan Suraaj’s spokesperson, Pavan Varma, says that whether PK stays in politics or not will be his personal decision, but “we cannot leave Bihar.” Meanwhile, even before the election results were announced, many party candidates quit Jan Suraaj. Among the prominent ones are Dr Shashi Shekhar Sinha from Gopalganj, Dr Satya Prakash Tiwari from Buxar and Akhilesh Kumar from Danapur. The departure of these candidates midway through the election certainly dealt a major blow to the party’s credibility. Unfazed by all this, PK is busy packing his bags and is eager to catch a flight to Chennai, where he may offer his services as an election strategist to actor Vijay for the upcoming Tamil Nadu elections. PK has already held several meetings with Vijay earlier regarding this.
Why Did the Mallah Vote Shift to the NDA?
In this Bihar Assembly election, it is believed that the coming together of Chirag Paswan, Jitan Ram Manjhi and Upendra Kushwaha benefitted Nitish Kumar’s JD(U) in at least 42 seats. Compared to 2020, the BJP’s seat tally increased by around 12, but the saffron party’s strike rate crossed an impressive 88 percent. Nitish’s seats almost doubled. Chirag won close to a dozen and a half seats, while both Manjhi and Kushwaha also performed extremely well. But now no one is asking why the Mallah (fisherfolk) vote completely shifted to the NDA. Why was the Mahagathbandhan’s deputy chief ministerial candidate Mukesh Sahani unable to open even his account? Did the Mahagathbandhan fail to do its homework properly regarding Sahani?
