Tridib Raman
It seems the coming days will put an end to the speculations about who will be the next national president of the BJP. If the subtle cues emerging from the corridors of Sangh are read carefully, Rajnath Singh has emerged as the frontrunner in the race for the new president. As is widely known, a three-day meeting of RSS provincial pracharaks was held from July 4 to 6 at Keshav Kunj in New Delhi, attended by top RSS leaders, including Mohan Bhagwat. Around 233 key volunteers associated with the Sangh and its affiliate organizations participated in this meeting. According to sources, a serious discussion took place within the core group of the Sangh regarding the name of the next BJP national president. Mohan Bhagwat has already made his stance on this matter clear. Bhagwat believes, “Prime Minister Modi has built such a massive political and organizational image that any other BJP leader seems insignificant in comparison.” Therefore, from the beginning, the RSS chief has held the view that “BJP should have a new president who can at least stand shoulder to shoulder with Modi.” Only a handful of BJP leaders were seen as potential candidates fitting that criterion. The first name was Nitin Gadkari, but convincing the current saffron leadership about him was not easy. Then, the names of Manohar Lal Khattar and Shivraj Singh Chouhan came up. Shivraj is also a natural choice for the RSS—he is a good orator and organizer—but the current top leadership does not seem particularly enthusiastic about him either. Eventually, the RSS has played its trump card by proposing the name of 74-year-old Rajnath Singh. Both Modi and Shah are comfortable with Rajnath, and the soft-spoken leader believes in carrying everyone along. The RSS is confident that Rajnath will firmly keep Modi informed about the Sangh’s ideology, beliefs, and aspirations from time to time. Moreover, he will prove equally adept at balancing the power dynamics between the government and the organization. Rajnath will turn 75 next year, and according to the BJP’s unwritten tradition, he might no longer continue as a Union Minister after that. Following the recent “Operation Sindoor,” Rajnath Singh’s popularity has also seen a slight boost — potentially benefiting the party in upcoming elections in Bihar and Bengal. The Monsoon Session of Parliament is set to begin on July 21, so it is likely that Modi would want the BJP to have its new president in place before then.
Two Distinct Streams Within RSS
Tridib Raman
Sources close to the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) indicate that two distinct ideological streams have emerged within the organization in the current era. One of these is popularly known as the “Trads” (short for “Traditionalists”), which strongly reflects the core values of Sangh. It is said that RSS chief Mohan Bhagwat represents this faction. People aligned with this view believe RSS should remain firmly rooted in the values and objectives upon which it was founded. Hence, this group favours taking forward issues like Hindutva and the Uniform Civil Code. Yogi Adityanath is seen as a shining figure of this faction and enjoys strong support from the RSS, which has helped him retain power in Uttar Pradesh despite varying levels of support from the BJP’s top leadership. Members of this group consider Yogi to be the most reliable saffron successor to Modi. Meanwhile, Dattatreya Hosabale, considered the number two in the RSS and a close confidant of PM Modi, is seen as favouring a more liberal approach. This faction believes that a rigid stance won’t suffice in today’s climate. As the RSS enters its centenary year, it must present a more inclusive face—one that embodies ‘Sarva Dharma Sambhav’ (equal respect for all religions). Solely promoting Hindutva will not work; if needed, even Muslims and Dalits should be engaged with the RSS’s ideological narrative.Traditionalists often label this liberal faction as “Raitaz”—a play on words, implying those who merely ‘spread the mess’. Still, this group has long advocated bringing Dalits and backward communities closer to RSS and BJP ideologies. The current BJP leadership is considered to be aligned with this stream. Rajnath Singh’s potential appointment as the new BJP president is of significant interest to BJP strategist Amit Shah. If a Thakur leader from Uttar Pradesh is entrusted with leading the entire BJP, then does the state still require another Thakur (Yogi) in charge? Shah wants to advance this strategy and sideline Yogi, but a major faction of the RSS under Mohan Bhagwat’s leadership may not agree.
Extremely Backward Castes Drifting Away from Nitish
Tridib Raman
In Bihar, the extremely backward castes, traditionally considered a core vote bank for Nitish Kumar and his Janata Dal (United), may take a different stance in this election. EBCs constitute the largest demographic in Bihar, around 37 percent of the population. The past four to five assembly elections in Bihar bear witness to how Nitish skillfully consolidated these castes by invoking the fear of domination by upper castes and Yadavs, securing their support with his “arrow and bow” (JD(U)’s election symbol). However, this time, upper-caste votes may overwhelmingly favour Bharatiya Janata Party, and as a reaction, EBC voters might drift away from both JD(U) and BJP. Nitish’s poor health and his perceived unstable demeanor have also created uncertainty among his core voters. EBC voters have long complained that “all the benefits in their name are cornered by three EBC castes—Kalwar, Suri, and Teli—who dominate representation in elections for MPs and MLAs and secure major government positions.” Consequently, the remaining EBC castes demand that “Kalwar, Teli, and Suri be reclassified under Annexure-II, i.e., as Other Backward Classes (OBC).” Over 100 EBC castes have populations below one lakh, and their primary concern in the upcoming assembly elections is securing fair representation in various legislative bodies.
Is Shivraj Aiming for a New Crown?
Tridib Raman
Just days before the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS)’s three-day meeting in Delhi, Union Agriculture Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan met RSS chief Mohan Bhagwat in a somber mood. Sources claim that the details of this lengthy meeting were kept confidential by both sides. Insiders reveal that Shivraj poured out his frustrations to the RSS chief, candidly expressing that “he feels stifled in Delhi and is unable to act according to his will.” Elaborating further, Shivraj shared how he had worked with his officials to design a transformative welfare scheme for farmers across the country, which could have revolutionized the agricultural sector, but he was not given the go-ahead to implement it. Sources say Shivraj urged the RSS chief to relieve him of his responsibilities in Delhi and allow him to return to governing Madhya Pradesh. If that wasn’t possible, he reportedly said he was ready to “sit at home.” The RSS chief advised Shivraj not to make emotional decisions, stating, “We know BJP’s current mandate was secured on Modi’s face, so we don’t want to interfere with his independent decision-making. Like us, you should also wait to see when he (Modi) decides to make the biggest decision regarding his political future. Right now, he is entirely focused on the Bihar elections. Maybe we can talk to him about this only after the elections.”
When PM met Vasundhara
The saffron queen of Rajasthan, Vasundhara Raje Scindia, has once again gained prominence in BJP. Reliable sources claim that before departing for his foreign tour, PM Modi called Vasundhara to Delhi for a meeting. It is said that the meeting lasted long, during which the PM asked Vasundhara several questions one after another about Rajasthan and sought to know, “Why has the public started losing faith in Bhajan Lal’s government in such a short time?” Sources also reveal that the PM even offered Vasundhara a ministerial position at the Centre, saying, “The next time he expands his cabinet, he will assign her an important ministry.” Reportedly, Vasundhara very humbly told the PM, “Sir, I won’t be able to save Rajasthan for you while staying in Delhi. It doesn’t matter to me whether I am a minister or not. Give me the command of Rajasthan once again, and I will curb the rising graph of the Congress there.” Sources say Vasundhara also told the PM, “In the last assembly elections, the Congress managed to win only 66 seats in the state, while we won 118. But now the situation has reversed. If elections were held today, the Congress could even win 120 seats.” Thus, it is possible that in the coming days, the BJP top leadership may take a major decision regarding Rajasthan.
Will BJP Replace Three Chief Ministers?
During the RSS’s three-day Delhi meeting, serious dissatisfaction was expressed regarding the performance of chief ministers in three BJP-ruled states. Discussions highlighted how dedicated RSS workers toil day and night, running door-to-door campaigns to mobilize voters for the BJP, only for these chief ministers to focus on personal gains once entrusted with state leadership. Sources say Sangh conveyed its sentiments to the BJP’s top leadership. The meeting also addressed the need for the BJP to move away from giving party tickets to “celebrity stars.” For instance, Hema Malini’s statements were cited, which led to protests in Mathura-Vrindavan. Another prominent Bollywood actress’s name was also mentioned, along with concerns about MPs and MLAs from the Bhojpuri film industry and sports who fail to promote the party’s ideology. The RSS emphasized that “party tickets should be given to individuals rooted in or capable of advancing the ideologies of the BJP and RSS.” RSS also resolved to adapt its approach, stating, “To further our ideology, we must change our outlook and connect with more youth.”
Bulldozers in Delhi, Backlash in Bihar?
The Election Commission’s voter list revision initiative in Bihar is turning into a potential setback for the ruling party. Opposition parties have largely succeeded in convincing the state’s poor and minority voters that “the current government wants to strip them of their voting rights.” Meanwhile, the Delhi government’s aggressive bulldozer-driven demolition of slums and unauthorized settlements is resonating in Bihar. Millions of Biharis, who migrated to Delhi in search of livelihood, reside in such settlements now being razed. Their anguish is echoing back in their homes in Bihar. Could this “village connection” end up turning NDA’s grand ambitions barren this time?
