Tridib Raman
As the Modi government completes one year of its third term on the upcoming June 9, there is growing buzz about a major reshuffle in the Union Cabinet. Reliable sources claim that at least 11 Union Ministers could be shown the door, while a dozen new faces may find a place in the Cabinet. Among the ministers likely to be removed, performance report cards for their one-year tenure have been prepared, evaluating their work, decision-making abilities, coordination with the bureaucracy, and feedback from the public and party cadres. If PM Modi bases his decision on these parameters, even key ministries like Finance, Petroleum, Law & Justice, and External Affairs could face upheaval.There are also indications that PM Modi wants to reduce his government’s dependence on allies like TDP and JDU. In this context, he has already held meetings with Sharad Pawar and Ajit Pawar. Meanwhile, a prominent industrialist, considered close to the ruling party at the Centre, is in contact with Shiv Sena leader Uddhav Thackeray Speculation is rife about whether the two Shiv Sena factions—Uddhav and Shinde—might reunite before the Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC) elections. BJP’s internal surveys suggest that without Uddhav’s support, winning the BMC elections will not be easy for the ruling alliance. PM Modi may carry out a major cabinet reshuffle by the end of July. Among the probable names, Supriya Sule from NCP (Sharad faction) is being considered for a Cabinet berth, while Jitendra Awhad and Jayant Patil are likely to be appointed as Ministers of State. If Uddhav allies with Modi and the BJP, his son Aaditya Thackeray could also get a key responsibility in the Union Cabinet. Shashi Tharoor may be rewarded with a crucial ministry like External Affairs. In light of the upcoming Bihar Assembly elections, Ravi Shankar Prasad might also make a comeback.
Why Mahua’s Wedding Was Preponed
Tridib Raman
Regular readers of this column would certainly recall that the news of TMC’s firebrand leader Mahua Moitra’s marriage was first published exclusively in Mirch Masala. It was revealed that Mahua was set to marry her longtime lawyer friend in Denmark on June 20. However, when the news went viral, Mahua and her partner, Pinaki Mishra, decided to prepone the highly private ceremony. Initially, Belgium was chosen as the place, but it was later shifted to Germany, where the couple tied the knot on 5th June. Sources close to the newlyweds revealed that typically, after June 15, a large number of Supreme Court judges and senior lawyers travel to Europe for vacations. In such a case, the couple would have had to prepare a rather long guest list. Both wanted the ceremony to be a close-knit affair attended only by a few family members. As a result, only a very limited number of guests were present—like Mahua’s sister and brother-in-law from London, and a few close friends. Interestingly, even Mahua’s political rivals sent her congratulatory messages in bulk, along with bouquets and gifts.
Will AAP Split in Punjab?
Tridib Raman
After facing a split in Delhi, could the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) suffer another major blow in Punjab? Currently, AAP supremo Arvind Kejriwal has camped in Punjab, closely monitoring the Ludhiana by-election, where his party’s candidate and Rajya Sabha MP Sanjeev Arora is contesting. Speculation is rife that if Arora wins, Kejriwal may make him a minister in the Bhagwant Mann government and then contest the vacated Rajya Sabha seat himself. However, sources suggest that the BJP’s central leadership does not want Kejriwal in the Upper House, where he could become a vocal critic. Hence, the saffron party is allegedly backing Congress candidate Bharat Bhushan Ashu behind the scenes. Ashu, a former Congress minister, is fighting a strong campaign, and the Congress high command has entrusted ex-CM Charanjit Singh Channi to ensure his victory. If AAP loses Ludhiana, it could trigger a massive split in the party. Sources claim 60-70 AAP MLAs might break away to form a new faction, which could even secure Congress’s support to form a government. BJP is also believed to be quietly fueling this move.
Will BJP Get a New President by July-End?
Tridib Raman
Amidst intense speculation, political circles are abuzz with murmurs that the BJP will finalize its new national president by the end of July. However, suspense persists over the name, as no consensus has yet been reached between the BJP and RSS leadership. The names currently under discussion include: Nitin Gadkari, Rajnath Singh (who has reportedly withdrawn his candidacy), Shivraj Singh Chouhan, Manohar Lal Khattar, Arun Singh (Rajnath Singh’s brother-in-law, a dark horse favoured by both BJP and RSS), Bhupendra Yadav or Dharmendra Pradhan. Sources claim that Manohar Lal Khattar was initially the frontrunner due to his experience as a pracharak in South India (including Tamil Nadu) and his close ties with PM Modi. However, the RSS’s veto power is expected to play a decisive role this time. Before the national president’s announcement, BJP is likely to declare state chiefs for Delhi, Haryana, Madhya Pradesh, and Maharashtra. In Maharashtra, Ravindra Chavan (currently acting state chief) is tipped to get the full-term role.
What Tune Is Chirag Singing Now?
Tridib Raman
Chirag Paswan finds himself in a political limbo, with the BJP giving him no clear signals on his future. Frustrated, he recently met Nitish Kumar—only to be advised: “Your father (Ram Vilas Paswan) never focused on Bihar’s local politics; he thrived at the Centre. Why are you wasting energy here? You became a Union minister at a young age—focus on your father’s legacy instead.” Nitish’s dismissive tone, echoed by his bureaucrat aides, left Chirag disheartened. He then approached Lallan Singh (BJP Bihar in-charge), demanding 50 seats for his party (LJP-Ram Vilas) in the upcoming Bihar polls. However, BJP and JDU are reportedly willing to offer only 20 seats (10 each from their quotas). Rejected on all fronts, Chirag is now in talks with Prashant Kishor, planning a 2020-style rebellion—fielding candidates aggressively to weaken JDU’s prospects. His strategy? To emerge as the kingmaker in a fractured verdict.
PK’s Crosshairs on Nitish
Prashant Kishor’s “Udgosh Yatra” is underway, but he’s already begun revealing parts of his electoral strategy for Bihar. According to sources close to him, PK does not intend to target seats where the BJP is contesting strongly. Instead, he’s focusing on constituencies where JD(U) has built a strong base. On seats where JD(U) fields a strong Muslim candidate, PK plans to counter with his own strong Muslim contender. While most political parties in Bihar are focused on wooing Dalit, Muslim, and backward caste voters, PK’s ‘Jan Suraaj Party’ is turning its attention to upper-caste voters. Nitish Kumar, too, has accelerated his outreach to upper-caste voters. He appointed Mahachandra Prasad Singh as the head of the Upper Caste Commission. At the same time, to retain support among Dalit and Mahadalit voters, he has given key positions in the Bihar State Scheduled Commission to Chirag Paswan’s brother-in-law and Jitan Ram Manjhi’s son-in-law.
Nitish Kumar’s Bid for Muslim Votes
Whenever Nitish Kumar’s health stabilizes, he becomes deeply concerned about his core vote bank. Once he became convinced that supporting the Modi government’s Waqf Bill had caused cracks in his Muslim voter base, he immediately launched a damage control campaign. Reports reached Nitish that merely backing the Waqf Board had led to a shift in support, especially among the Pasmanda (socially and economically backward) Muslim community. In response, he swiftly appointed an old party loyalist, Gulam Rasool Balyawi as the head of the Bihar State Minority Board — with immediate effect. The move was clearly aimed at pacifying disenchanted Muslim voters and bringing them back into the JDU fold. Ironically, Baliyavi has always been an open critic of the Waqf Bill.
