Tridib Raman
Pakistan, notorious for its nefarious intentions globally, is reeling under the weight of its own crimes. Meanwhile, India appears to have moved on from the Pahalgam attack and returned to the rhythm of daily life. Ten days after the incident in Pahalgam, the Indian National Congress held a formal meeting of its Congress Working Committee (CWC), where they passed a resolution demanding that the government teach Pakistan a lesson and take decisive action against terrorism. Prime Minister Modi, however, has so far refrained from even mentioning Pakistan by name in relation to the attack. So, why is Pakistan looking so rattled? The answer may lie in the upcoming International Monetary Fund (IMF) meeting on May 9—a key session that could determine whether Pakistan will receive a $7 billion bailout package. The 37-month loan deal requires six review meetings. If Pakistan passes this first review, it will get an immediate infusion of $1 billion. However, the identification of two Pakistani-origin terrorists in the Pahalgam attack has reduced Pakistan’s chances. A negative review report is likely, which would be a significant economic blow to Pakistan.Desperate to salvage its global image, Pakistan is trying hard to garner international support, but success has been limited. Of the 57 member states of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC), only 1 has come forward in defense of Pakistan. Meanwhile, India has strategically escalated pressure by blocking social media accounts of Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and other prominent figures. If Pakistan fails to secure the IMF bailout, the nation could teeter on the edge of civil unrest.
Why Vasundhara Is Back in the BJP Spotlight
Tridib Raman
Rajasthan’s saffron politics is taking a new turn, and suddenly, former Chief Minister Vasundhara Raje has regained significance in Delhi’s political circles. Last week, she held a lengthy meeting with Union Home Minister Amit Shah in the capital. Sources say Shah assured her that the party would duly respect her stature and that she may be given a significant role in the central organization during the upcoming reshuffle. Reportedly, Vasundhara made it clear that since she already holds the position of National Vice President in the BJP, any meaningful gesture from the party should involve her induction into the Union Cabinet with a substantial portfolio. Shah is said to have assured her that the matter would be discussed with Prime Minister Modi and that a decision would be made soon. The truth is, the BJP top brass is deeply displeased with the ongoing infighting within the Rajasthan unit. Recently, the party commissioned a major public opinion survey through a prominent agency to assess the popularity and performance of Chief Minister Bhajanlal Sharma. The most shocking revelation? About 25% of those surveyed didn’t even know who their chief minister is. Even more concerning, the survey concluded that if assembly elections were held today, the BJP might struggle to retain power in the state. The findings also indicated that Bhajanlal Sharma’s popularity is largely confined to the Brahmin community, whereas Vasundhara Raje enjoys broader acceptance across various castes. She belongs to the OBC community, is the daughter-in-law of a Jat family, and has connections to the Gurjars through her extended family—factors that contribute to her broad social appeal. When Amit Shah asked Vasundhara about the party’s declining graph in the state, she reportedly placed the blame squarely on the state BJP in-charge, Radha Mohan Das Agarwal. According to her, he has been fueling factionalism and has even bypassed protocol by directly calling ministers to get work done. Vasundhara emphasized the urgent need to replace him as state in-charge.
Is There a Rift between Mamata and Abhishek?
Tridib Raman
The scent of rebellion is in the air in Kolkata, and this unrest has reached the very courtyard of the Trinamool Congress. If reliable sources are to be believed, three BJP MPs from Bengal were ready to join the Trinamool. These three MPs were approached by Abhishek Banerjee, and the script for this political maneuver was reportedly crafted by former quizmaster and key TMC figure, Derek O’Brien. Each of the three BJP MPs had different demands. The first had no interest in contesting the next election but wanted to be made a minister in Mamata’s government, similar to Babul Supriyo. The second MP, who was willing to contest the next election, wanted assurance that if he lost on a TMC ticket, Mamata Didi would nominate him to the Rajya Sabha. The third was not interested in contesting the election himself; instead, he wanted his wife to be fielded in an assembly election and made a minister in the state government. It is said that Abhishek had given the green signal to the deal, but Mamata was not on board. Meanwhile, the patience of these three saffron-clad MPs was wearing thin. Word of their possible defection also reached the BJP high command, which promptly summoned them and questioned why they had become so disengaged—rarely seen in the House and absent from party meetings. Now, even before they could defect, the ground had begun to slip from under their feet. In desperation, they checked with Abhishek one last time: “What’s going on? Is anything actually going to happen?” Abhishek told Derek to immediately speak to Didi about the matter. But when Derek brought it up with Mamata, she reportedly became extremely upset. She said, “What useless affair are you people involved in? First, by teaming up with PK, you tarnished TMC’s image in Goa, Assam, and Tripura. Now you’re starting another game without knowing what we even stand to gain?” Derek quietly backed off. Now, word has spread across the party that “Abhishek is no longer able to get things done.”
Why Announce the Caste Census Now?
Tridib Raman
Though it was a calculated move by Modi to announce the caste census while the nation was still reeling from the pain of the Pahalgam attack, the truth is that the RSS had already scripted this strategy back in September 2024 during a three-day coordination meeting with the BJP in Palakkad, Kerala. Historically, the RSS has opposed the idea of a caste census, viewing it as a political tool that could divide society. The organization has consistently advocated for assessing Hindus through an economic lens—focusing on rich versus poor rather than caste divisions. This stance stems from a long-standing concern that caste-based politics could fracture the Hindu vote bank and weaken the BJP’s electoral dominance. However, there’s now a shift in thinking. The RSS recognizes that if the BJP wants to expand its influence in South India, it cannot ignore the rising demand for a caste census. In states like Tamil Nadu, Karnataka, and Telangana, where parties like the DMK and Congress have championed this issue, the BJP risks falling behind. Nitish Kumar’s Bihar government has already reignited the caste census debate, and parties like the Congress and RJD have turned it into a major electoral plank. With the Uttar Pradesh elections looming in 2027, the BJP does not want to be left behind.
UP’s OBC Politics Heats Up
Tridib Raman
Recently, an important meeting took place in Lucknow between two prominent figures in Uttar Pradesh’s OBC politics—Om Prakash Rajbhar and Dr. Sanjay Nishad. This meeting occurred shortly after the central government’s announcement of the caste census. The two leaders proposed forming an OBC front and bringing Anupriya Patel on board, aiming to unite the three major OBC communities in UP—Kurmi, Rajbhar, and Nishad—on a single platform. Their strategy was to leverage this united front to demand 50–60 seats from the BJP in the upcoming assembly elections. At present, the BJP offers only around five seats each to these OBC parties. However, when news of this meeting reached the BJP’s top leadership, both leaders were given a blunt message: their influence over their own caste vote banks is questionable, given their inability to even get their own family members elected. While they help gather votes for the BJP, they have failed to deliver full-scale vote transfers from their communities. As a result, the BJP leadership indicated that it might be better to promote new OBC leaders in Uttar Pradesh and groom them for the upcoming elections.
Caste Census: Prep Began Long Before Announcement
Though the announcement of the caste census came recently, the Modi government had been preparing for it much earlier. According to reliable sources, the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation, headed by Rao Inderjit Singh, had already issued three tenders related to the census. A fourth tender was floated just recently, for which a major company—operating in the visa business—has qualified. The first three tenders failed to attract bidders because companies felt the government’s proposed budget for a nationwide caste census was far too low. This time, however, the qualified visa company has put forth a demand: that the government increase the margin money by at least 25%, given that the work is expected to take at least a year. Instead of meeting this demand, the government is now considering conducting the census in-house, using its own personnel to carry out the extensive exercise.
