Tridib Raman
The million-dollar question is: how long will the mother of the goat continue to remain safe? Following the explosive report in The Indian Express, the Election Commission, particularly Chief Election Commissioner Gyanesh Kumar and Election Commission Director General (IT) Seema Khanna, who is said to enjoy his patronage, have come under fire from opposition parties as well as Gen Z. The Cockroach Janata Party has demanded the immediate resignation of the Chief Election Commissioner. It has also called for a criminal case to be filed against him and demanded that he be asked, “On whose instructions did he do this?” The CJP has said that, in the absence of any action against Gyanesh Kumar, it will launch a nationwide agitation from October 2. It may be recalled that, over the SIR process, the two Election Commissioners, Sukhbir Singh Sandhu and Vivek Joshi, had reportedly raised objections around 14 times over a period of 10 months. Needless to say, this entire episode appears to have breathed new life into an otherwise dormant opposition. Perhaps for the first time in opposition politics, TMC leader Mamata Banerjee personally called the CPI(M) general secretary and appealed to him, saying that “both parties need to come together and fight this entire corrupt system.” The controversy also appears to have put the future of the Central Government’s highly ambitious Delimitation Bill in uncertainty. The government’s reported plan to reconvene the delayed chapter of the Monsoon Session also seems to have been put on hold for the time being. The most important question is whether, amid the growing chorus of adverse voices, the government will be able to shield its favoured Gyanesh Kumar, or whether it will have to sacrifice his plans and intentions. That, perhaps, is the real test facing the Modi government.
Will Ram Madhav get a Rajya Sabha seat?
With Nitin Nabin’s new team, Ram Madhav has once again been given a major responsibility in the BJP organisation. During Amit Shah’s tenure as party president, he served as the BJP’s general secretary, but Nadda removed him from the organisation during his term as party president. This time, however, Madhav has been appointed in charge of not only poll-bound Uttarakhand but also Tamil Nadu. Originally from Andhra Pradesh, Ram Madhav has considerable work to do in Tamil Nadu. He is also regarded as an expert on border states. Through his organisation, India Foundation, he has worked extensively for Tamil refugees as well. There could be another objective behind the central leadership’s decision to appoint him as the party’s Tamil Nadu in-charge: to channel anti-Hindi sentiments in the state in a more positive direction. Another possible aim could be to establish coordination with TVK chief Vijay and make him more receptive towards Delhi. Sixty-two-year-old Ram Madhav has so far never been a member of either House of Parliament. Consequently, there is considerable speculation that this time he could be brought into the Rajya Sabha from either Uttarakhand or Uttar Pradesh. The BJP could win one Rajya Sabha seat in Uttarakhand and eight in Uttar Pradesh. The elections are scheduled to be held on October 16. There is intense competition among BJP leaders for Rajya Sabha seats from Uttar Pradesh. The names currently being discussed include BL, or Banwari Lal Verma, who is a Minister of State in the Modi government in the Ministries of Consumer Affairs, Food and Public Distribution. Other names being discussed include Sanjeev Balyan, Harish Dwivedi, Shrikant Sharma and Satyapal Singh.
Cycle on BSP’s Crumbling Vote bank
Akhilesh Yadav intends to throw in his all in this UP election. Just as Mayawati’s BSP fortress in UP is crumbling and the party’s vote bank is rapidly eroding, Akhilesh wants to ride his cycle into this empty space. It may be noted that in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, BSP’s vote percentage has fallen to merely 9 percent. Whereas in the 2022 UP Assembly elections it was 13.88 percent. While during the 2019 Lok Sabha elections in UP it was 19.3 percent. Implementing this strategy, Akhilesh has enforced a blue colour code for the Samajwadi Party’s student organization, the Samajwadi Party Chhatra Sabha. It may be noted that this blue colour has long moved step by step with Dalit and Ambedkarite politics. Akhilesh wants to take his identity to Dalit youth; perhaps that is why the traditional green or red of the party has been discarded in favour of blue. In addition, the party is also preparing for a large Dalit conference in Agra. The truth is that Akhilesh wants to expand his party’s base beyond the Muslim-Yadav or PDA combination. For this he is running a campaign to attract not only Dalits but also upper-caste voters to the SP. In fact, Akhilesh’s strategy is to rise above his traditional vote-bank castes and expand his reach to Kurmis, Shakyas, Mauryas, Nishads, Brahmins and other communities. He is also not taking the risk of alienating the Rajput voters of the state; that is why, instead of directly attacking Yogi, he is targeting Modi, the BJP or the UP government. Akhilesh knows that the people of UP are not as angry with Baba (Yogi) as they are with the BJP, Modi or the central government.
Why is Harsh not happy?
If you recall, UP Deputy CM and Delhi’s favourite Keshav Prasad Maurya suffered a crushing defeat at the hands of SP’s Pallavi Patel from Sirathu in the previous 2022 Assembly elections. But since Delhi’s boundless grace continued to shower on him and Delhi kept trying to project him as a counter to Yogi, instead of writing him off as a loser, Keshav was once again installed as Deputy CM in UP. According to sources, for the coming 2027 Assembly elections Maurya’s heart has turned against Sirathu, so after much effort he has completed the search for a new seat for himself. This seat is said to be Prayagraj North. At present, Harsh Bajpai is the elected BJP MLA from here. Harsh, i.e., Harshvardhan Bajpai, was earlier in the BSP before joining the BJP, but he enjoys considerable popularity in the area. His grandmother Dr Rajendra Kumari Bajpai and father Ashok Bajpai are also counted among well-known politicians. On the Prayagraj North seat, Brahmin voters play a decisive role anyway. In addition, Kayastha and minority voters also have a significant presence. The very nature of this seat is such that voters generally cast their votes on the basis of the candidate’s merit. Now, how well Keshav Prasad Maurya will fit into this mould is a question worth pondering. But ever since Bajpai got wind of Keshav’s intentions, he has become extremely hostile towards the state’s Deputy CM.
Jayant in Election mode
After picking a political fight with SP chief Akhilesh Yadav, RLD’s Jayant Chaudhary has now fully shifted into election mode. Several rounds of talks have already taken place between him and the BJP top leadership over seat-sharing. But the hitch over the number of seats remains unresolved. Jayant is demanding as many seats as the BJP leadership is reluctant to give him. However, a formula for compromise has emerged in the meantime, under which, on the lines of “your symbol, our candidate,” the BJP will field its own candidates from behind on several of Jayant’s seats, wherever it feels that Jayant does not have a suitable candidate to fight the battle. To resolve this alliance-related tangle, Jayant had held an important meeting with PM Modi a fortnight ago. In fact, this time the NDA alliance has also become a compulsion for Jayant, because his repeated party-hopping has created cracks even in his core vote bank. Even his most solid core vote bank, the Jats, is angry with him. This is perhaps the reason why Jayant’s party is not in a position to win on its own even in its traditional stronghold of Chhaprauli. Apart from Jat votes, minority voters had always stood with Jayant, but once he crossed over to the BJP’s side, Muslim voters too appear to have become disillusioned with him. In any case, Jayant’s Rajya Sabha term ends in 2028. If he has to get re-elected to the Upper House, he will be completely at the mercy of the BJP, because his party has only six MLAs in the UP Assembly. In addition, he has two Lok Sabha MPs. It is understood that the BJP has offered Jayant that “if he wishes, he can merge his party into the saffron party.” Both of Jayant’s party’s Lok Sabha MPs (from Baghpat and Bijnor) are also said to be ready for this. These MPs aspire to get the post of Minister of State at the Centre. In such a situation, Jayant too could be promoted from Minister of State (Independent Charge) to Cabinet Minister rank. But the BJP is not particularly in a hurry on this. Some of the party’s strategists believe that the existence of an independent RLD is in the BJP’s interest.
BJP eyes Mohammed Shami for Amroha
Why the existence of an independent RLD is in the BJP’s interest can be understood with this example: several seats in western UP have such a strong Muslim dominance that only a Muslim candidate can win from there. Now, the BJP will not field Muslim candidates directly on its election symbol in the electoral battlefield, so in such a situation RLD can help it cross the electoral river. The latest case is linked to Indian cricketer Mohammed Shami, who recently had a very meaningful meeting with RLD chief Jayant Chaudhary. Officially it was stated that Jayant had allocated ₹1.5 crore through his MP Nidhi for the development of sports in Amroha, and that Shami had suddenly come to meet Jayant only to express gratitude for this. However, there is strong buzz that the BJP wants to use Jayant’s shoulder to field Shami as an RLD candidate from some Assembly segment of Amroha. It may be recalled that Shami is a resident of Sahaspur in Sadar tehsil. Of Amroha’s four Assembly seats, at least two are certainly Muslim-dominated. That is why it has remained an SP stronghold so far. Note that this time RLD’s demand is for the Amroha and Naugawan Sadat seats. If the Amroha seat comes into RLD’s account, Shami could be the party’s candidate from here. There are more than two lakh Muslim votes here, and of these, 70,000 alone belong to Turk Muslims, whose leadership Mohammed Shami himself provides, because he too is a Turk Muslim. This seat has been going into the SP’s account for five consecutive terms; currently SP’s Mahboob Ali is the MLA from here. In any case, Shami has been out of Team India for quite some time; he played his last One Day match for the Indian team in March 2025.
BJP Seeks Fresh Face in Himachal
BJP is searching for a new and fresh face in Himachal Pradesh. In this connection, the name of former Rajya Sabha MP and former state women’s president Indubala Goswami is in the headlines. Having missed out on a place in Team Nitin Nabin, Indubala is being considered for important responsibilities in Delhi. She is a prominent Brahmin face from Himachal, who comes from Kangra district. Active in politics for 30 years, Indu first became the chairperson of the Himachal Pradesh Women’s Commission in 1999 during the Dhumal government. In 2016, she became the state president of the BJP Mahila Morcha, and in 2024 she was elected to the Rajya Sabha. She contested from the Palampur Assembly seat in 2017 but lost. She is also considered close to PM Modi.