Tridib Raman
Fueled by lofty political ambitions, the BJP’s ‘Ashwamedha’ horse is impatient to cover the distance from Kashmir to Kanyakumari with its gentle trot. Truth be told, the country’s largest political party wants to create a “pan-India footprint” across the entire nation, from north to south and east to west. This is the same kind of footprint on which the Congress party stood for years after independence, establishing its dominance across the country. Sources close to the BJP top brass claim that for the upcoming 2029 Lok Sabha elections, the BJP wants to enter the fray “solo”, it no longer has much faith in relying on alliance partners. For 2029, the BJP has already set a target of 400 seats, solely on its own strength. Sources say, a key meeting of BJP strategists was recently convened at Home Minister Amit Shah’s residence to discuss this very issue. The meeting was attended by leaders ranging from Piyush Goyal to B.L. Santosh. Just a few days before this meeting, Piyush Goyal was in Chennai. It is said he had pre-scheduled meetings with two leaders there. One was G.K. Vasan, son of G.K. Moopanar and president of Tamil Maanila Congress (Moopanar); the other was T.T.V. Dhinakaran of AMMK (Amma Makkal Munnetra Kazhagam). It is understood that Piyush Goyal presented both leaders with a proposal to join the BJP and merge their parties into it. While a merger did not materialize, Dhinakaran agreed to join the NDA. G.K. Vasan, however, remains somewhat hesitant. He believes that the entire temperament of Dravidian politics in Tamil Nadu has been forged in the fire of anti-BJP, anti-Hindi sentiment; a direct decision to join the BJP could be suicidal. He feels that staying outside the BJP-NDA might still keep his politics intact. Although the central government may currently rely on Chandrababu Naidu’s support, the BJP is troubled by Naidu’s list of justifiable and unjustifiable demands. Hence, in Andhra Pradesh, BJP strategists have held talks with Pawan Kalyan. The 54-year-old Pawan is the chief of the Jana Sena Party and currently the Deputy Chief Minister of Andhra Pradesh. It is believed that BJP strategists have asked Pawan Kalyan to merge his party with the BJP and become the BJP’s face in the state elections, which could help defeat both Chandrababu Naidu and Jagan Mohan Reddy. Sources say Pawan has also been assured not to worry about financial resources for this task, arrangements will be made. Pawan Kalyan has not yet given his full consent to the proposal, so the saffron leadership awaits his decision. Similarly, in Kerala, the newly formed ‘Twenty20 Party’ has joined the NDA. The party’s founder is Sabu M. Jacob, a prominent industrialist from Kerala and Managing Director of the Kitex Group.
From Bihar to UP, Saffron Push to Merge Allies for Total Dominance
Tridib Raman
In Bihar, a new party emerged in the recent elections, founded by I.P. Gupta, called the ‘Indian Inclusive Party’. Gupta succeeded in winning his seat in the recent Bihar elections. It is said the BJP has persuaded Gupta to merge his party with the saffron party. Upendra Kushwaha’s RLSP is already a part of the NDA. This time, four of Kushwaha’s MLAs have been elected, one of whom is his wife. The remaining three MLAs are already in touch with the BJP; they are upset with Upendra Kushwaha for getting his son Deepak Prakash made a minister in Nitish Kumar’s government without being an MLA. Kushwaha’s Rajya Sabha membership is also ending in the coming month of April, and he is seeking another term. It is understood that the BJP top brass has indicated to him that his demand could be considered if he merges his party, the Rashtriya Lok Samta Party, with the BJP. Now moving to Uttar Pradesh, it is believed that Apna Dal (Sonelal)’s Anupriya Patel has also been asked to merge her party with the BJP. In return, she could be given the rank of a Cabinet Minister in the Modi ministry. Sensing the delicacy of the situation, Anupriya told the BJP leadership that she has no problem merging her party with the BJP, but once she vacates this space in UP, her sister Pallavi Patel will try to capture that space, i.e., those votes, which would benefit the SP. Similarly, National Lok Dal president and Union Minister Jayant Chaudhary has been told that the BJP will contest the upcoming UP panchayat elections alone, with no alliance with his party possible. In the 2027 assembly elections, only about 10–12 seats may be spared for his party. Jayant has demanded 25 seats. So, the BJP has told Jayant that if he wishes, he can merge his National Lok Dal with the BJP, and in return, he could be elevated from Minister of State (Independent Charge) to Cabinet Minister. Jayant is currently weighing this proposal while keeping an eye on his neighbours.
Shinde’s Worries Won’t Fade
Tridib Raman
When Deputy Chief Minister Eknath Shinde confined his 29 elected municipal representatives to a hotel in Mumbai’s Bandra during the BMC elections, keeping them within his reach, the BJP’s brows furrowed. In any case, the undeclared war between Devendra Fadnavis and Shinde in Maharashtra has now spilled onto the streets. This time, the BJP’s performance in Maharashtra’s local body elections has been splendid. Since then, Fadnavis’s confidence has soared. It is believed that Fadnavis has claimed before the party top brass that “in the 2029 elections, the BJP can win 35 Lok Sabha seats here on its own, it does not need Shinde or Ajit as crutches.” However, for the assembly elections, Fadnavis is willing to leave 25–30 seats in Western Maharashtra for Ajit Pawar’s party. Meanwhile, Eknath Shinde has been told to “merge his party with the BJP.” Shinde is not at all ready for this. He says, “If I merge my party with the BJP once, the ‘Marathi manush’ (people) base of my party will be captured by Uddhav’s Shiv Sena. I have fought hard to prove my party as the true successor of Balasaheb in the eyes of the ‘Marathi manush’.” This is why Shinde put all his energy into the recent local body elections, he spent considerable money and focused on strengthening his party organization at the grassroots. So, taming Shinde will not be so easy for the BJP.
Eyes on the Northeast Too?
Tridib Raman
Over the past few years, since the advent of the Modi era in the BJP, the party has rapidly expanded its foothold in the Northeast states as well. The BJP is advancing its merger-expansion formula in the Northeast. The latest example can be taken from Tripura, where the saffron party has already facilitated the merger of the royal scion Pradyot Kishore Manikya Debbarma’s party, ‘Tipra Motha Party’ (TIPRA) into the BJP. Talks for the merger of the ‘Mizo National Front’, considered the second-largest party in Mizoram, with the BJP have now gained full momentum. In Meghalaya, Conrad Sangma’s NPP, although already an NDA ally, is being persuaded by BJP strategists to merge his party with the BJP. To sharpen this intent, the BJP formed the North-East Democratic Alliance (NEDA) in 2016, with Assam Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma as its head. BJP strategists are employing every tactic, persuasion, incentive, pressure, and division, to achieve this plan. It is believed that where a party is unwilling to merge, a strategy to split it is set in motion. The Biju Janata Dal is the latest example, rebel voices in the party’s Cuttack and Bhubaneswar units have gained momentum, casting a shadow over the existence of this 24-year-old party.
When will Nitin Nabin’s new team be formed?
Tridib Raman
The BJP high command’s initial plan was to make the new president’s coronation a grand event, with a massive gathering of 15-20 thousand leaders and workers present for the tilak ceremony. However, due to the lukewarm response from the cadre and sensing the delicacy of the timing, it was wrapped up in great haste and chaos. Among the big leaders present at the event, only the faces of Modi and Amit Shah were shining brightly. Now, the issue of Nabin’s new team has hit a snag. The newly elected president himself wants his team to be announced as soon as possible, ideally in the coming February month. On the other hand, the BJP’s Chanakya (strategic mastermind, implying Amit Shah or top leadership) has a different opinion, they want the announcement of Naveen’s new team only after the upcoming assembly elections conclude, i.e., after the elections in Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, Bengal, and Assam. By then, the Modi government 3.0 would also have completed two years of its term, allowing simultaneous changes in the party organization and the central cabinet. There could also be some swapping of senior people between the organization and the government, and vice versa. This would keep the enthusiasm alive among party leaders for working in these five states, as a corner of their minds would hold the hope of being rewarded for good performance in the elections.
What will Team Nabin’s face look like?
Speculation is rife about what the final look of Team Naveen will be. Will it be traditional, i.e., a mix of young and experienced faces, or will it be a team where everyone is under 60 years old, as Nitin himself desires? He wants to build a youthful team, since he himself is only 45 years old right now. According to sources, 3-4 faces could be dropped from Nabin’s general secretaries’ team, and rumours of their exit are circulating: Tarun Chugh (who was brought in as JP Nadda’s favourite), Arun Singh, Dushyant Gautam, and Ramdas Agrawal. On the other hand, Vinod Tawde and Sunil Bansal’s positions might remain safe. It is being said about B.L. Santhosh that he will continue as organization general secretary until the 2029 elections, as his coordination with the BJP top leadership is very good. Ram Madhav wants to be reinstated in the role of advising the PM on Jammu & Kashmir, Northeast, and foreign policy matters. It is understood that Ram Madhav met the PM and expressed his desire to maintain the shine of his ‘Vishwa Guru’ image, while also building harmonious relations with foreign embassies. It is said that only after getting the green signal from the PM did he meet Amit Shah. Following this, the announcement came from Nabin’s office appointing him as in-charge for the Greater Bengaluru municipal elections. There are talks that in Nitin Nabin’s new team, Ram Madhav could be given a major responsibility as general secretary or vice president. Similarly, as a reward for good work in the Bihar elections, Vinod Tawde has been made in-charge for the Kerala elections, and Ashish Shelar has been assigned responsibility for Telangana’s local body elections. Both are strong contenders for important roles in Nabin’s new team.
Bengal BJP’s Dilemma
The closer West Bengal’s election hour approaches, the deeper the furrows on Shubhendu Adhikari’s brow become. Recently, Adhikari sent four close MPs from Bengal to meet the BJP’s Chanakya [Amit Shah]. In unison, they appealed to the high command: “If you do not project a CM face for the party in Bengal, it will become difficult for us to win the election there.” Shah smiled and said, “It is not the BJP’s policy to fight elections by projecting a CM face in any state. We fight and win everywhere solely on the face of the honourable Modi ji.” To this, one MP remarked, “But in UP, we fought and won on the face of Yogi ji.” After a moment of silence, Shah finally asked the four MPs, “Suppose we agree to project a face in Bengal, do we even have a clean-image face available?” At this, the four could not bring themselves to take Shubhendu’s name. They returned home empty-handed.
