Tridib Raman
Politics is a curious convergence of coincidences; it’s hard to predict when someone’s sidelined moment will suddenly find a voice and echo loudly. Mukhtar Abbas Naqvi, a prominent Shia leader of the BJP, had been kept on the back burner by his own party for quite some time. But as the crisis in West Asia deepened and India’s ties with Iran became entangled in complex knots, the responsibility of untangling this situation unexpectedly fell upon Naqvi, who had been politically overlooked. Naqvi shares an old rapport with Iran’s ambassador to India, Dr. Mohammad Fathali. So, under the pretext of an iftar gathering, Naqvi met Fathali, and the two held a meaningful half-hour conversation behind closed doors. Naqvi managed to convey that “the thousands of years of cultural ties between India and Iran cannot be torn apart by a few recent incidents.” He went on to cite past instances highlighting the strength of Indo-Iranian relations, noting that during the peak of the COVID-19 crisis, India helped evacuate thousands of Bangladeshi, Pakistani, and Sri Lankan citizens from Iran. India had sent more than half a dozen aircraft to Tehran and brought people to India regardless of their nationality. They were quarantined for a month at a defense facility in Jodhpur before being sent back to their respective countries, especially at a time when Iran was not even allowing foreign nationals to stay in its hotels. This meeting proved fruitful. The frost in India-Iran relations thawed somewhat, and soon after, Iran’s ambassador in India issued a statement calling India a trustworthy nation amid West Asian tensions and emphasized its important role in diplomatic mediation. Following this, Prime Minister Modi spoke with Iran’s President, and External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar also met Dr. Fathali. As a result of these developments, Iran granted permission for Indian ships to pass through the Strait of Hormuz. For now, this clearance has been given to four Indian vessels, and in the coming days, Iran is considering extending this permission to all Indian ships. Iran also described Indian children’s piggy bank donations as a heartfelt gesture. Indeed, Naqvi’s timely initiative turned out to be of great service to the nation.
Nitish is Preparing his son Nishant for a New Innings
Tridib Raman
On the political chessboard of strategy and counter-strategy, it is not easy to defeat a seasoned and shrewd player like Nitish Kumar, something the saffron strategists must have realized by now. The BJP managed to bring Nitish to the threshold of the Rajya Sabha, but he is still hesitating to take the oath in the Upper House. He has not yet resigned from his membership of the Legislative Council, even though he was elected to the Rajya Sabha on March 16. Under these circumstances, he had a 14-day window to vacate his Legislative Council seat, a deadline that expires on March 30. The question now is: when will Nitish finally head to Delhi and resign from his post as Chief Minister? For now, no one seems to have a clear answer. Sources close to Nitish claim that he is currently focused on grooming his son Nishant as his true political successor. For this purpose, he has enlisted around 20 of his old socialist colleagues from his days of struggle, whose task is to prepare Nishant for a new role. These sources also reveal that the services of a well-known PR agency have been hired at a significant cost to shape Nishant’s public image. He is being shown old videos of his father – how he meets people, addresses public gatherings, and speaks or reacts in the Assembly and Parliament. Nishant is being asked to adopt his father’s mannerisms so that when he goes among the public, people see a glimpse of the young Nitish in him. Until Nishant is ready to play his new innings, Nitish will keep postponing the BJP’s invitation to come to Delhi.
Why is Deka making headlines?
IB Director and 1988-batch IPS officer Tapan Deka, considered the eyes, ears, and nose of the BJP’s master strategist, is set to receive yet another one-year extension in service, marking the third such extension in recognition of his contributions. His stature can be gauged from the fact that even the Home Minister addresses him as “Tapan bhai.” Is it merely a coincidence that while Deka has remained in Delhi, many of his batchmates from 1988 have stayed far from the capital? Political circles are also abuzz with speculation that Tapan Deka is being groomed as the country’s next National Security Advisor. It is believed that once his extended tenure ends in about a year, he could succeed the current NSA, Ajit Doval. Sources suggest that Doval, considering his health, may announce his retirement within the next year. They also indicate that Deka plays a crucial role in executing the strategies of the BJP’s top leadership. He oversees the preparation of dossiers on leaders from both the ruling party and the opposition, provides key electoral inputs to the government, and helps implement Amit Shah’s political strategies. According to insiders, Deka’s influence is such that when Delhi’s newly appointed Lieutenant Governor, Taranjit Singh Sandhu, came to meet him recently, he reportedly had to wait for nearly half an hour before being granted an audience with the IB Director.
Why is the government in a hurry to implement Women’s Reservation?
The ongoing Budget Session of Parliament was supposed to continue until April 2, but it was abruptly halted on March 27. Sources say the government does not want to formally conclude the session just yet. Instead, it prefers to keep the session technically open, since the next session, the Monsoon Session, is scheduled only in July. The government is not keen on waiting that long. It wants to immediately amend and implement the Women’s Reservation Bill, 2023. Earlier, this law, also called the Nari Shakti Vandan Act, 2023, was linked to the census and delimitation process. Now, the central government aims to implement it in the 2029 Lok Sabha elections instead of 2034. Under the proposed amendment, the 2011 Census may be used as the basis for fresh delimitation instead of waiting for the 2025 Census. Once passed, the strength of the Lok Sabha could increase from 543 to 816 seats, of which 273 may be reserved for women. Sources indicate that once the electoral process in five states concludes on May 4, the remaining Budget Session could be reconvened between May 15 and 18 to pass the amended bill. However, it will be interesting to see the Congress party’s stance, as Rahul Gandhi has already raised the issue of caste-based reservation within the bill and Mamata Banerjee also has concerns about some provisions of the bill. To get this bill passed, the government will need the support of 70 percent of MPs; it will be interesting to see where the government’s strategists manage to gather this required number.
Saffron troubles in Assam
The BJP’s fast-moving electoral juggernaut in Assam suddenly appears to be losing momentum. One major reason is said to be former Chief Minister and current Union Minister Sarbananda Sonowal. Sonowal belongs to the Sonowal Kachari tribe, which constitutes around 6.5% of Assam’s population. This plains-dwelling community has now turned against Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma. The shift followed Sonowal’s statement accusing Sarma of neglecting his supporters in ticket distribution. This time, Sarma is contesting the elections largely on his own image and charisma, but anti-incumbency is also working against him. Meanwhile, Mamata Banerjee’s TMC has fielded 50 candidates under the leadership of Sushmita Dev, and Meghalaya CM Conrad Sangma’s party has put up 20 candidates. Initially, it seemed these parties might indirectly benefit the BJP, but ground reports now suggest that in several constituencies, especially in the Bodoland region, they are cutting into BJP’s vote share. Additionally, Sarma has fielded around 30 former Congress leaders on BJP tickets, which has caused resentment not only among BJP workers but also within the disciplined cadre of the RSS.
Whose interests is Rohit serving?
Rohit Pawar, nephew of Sharad Pawar and an MLA from his party in Maharashtra, continues to insist that the plane crash involving his uncle Ajit Pawar was a conspiracy. He has long been pushing for an FIR to be registered and legal action to be taken against those responsible. In pursuit of this, he had already met Maharashtra Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis and Deputy CM Eknath Shinde. However, despite his efforts, the state police did not file an FIR. Though he could have approached the courts in Maharashtra, Rohit chose a different route to send a broader political message. He went directly to Rahul Gandhi in Delhi, and with his intervention, a zero FIR was registered in Congress-ruled Karnataka. In reality, after Ajit Pawar’s death, an undeclared battle has emerged between Devendra Fadnavis and Sharad Pawar over control of his party. So far, the party appears to be under Fadnavis’ influence, with Ajit’s wife Sunetra Pawar acting as a key intermediary. At the same time, three senior leaders of the late Ajit Pawar’s party, Praful Patel, Chhagan Bhujbal, and Sunil Tatkare, are trying to retain their hold. Tatkare’s daughter, Aditi Tatkare, is also a minister in the Fadnavis government. These leaders reportedly have the backing of Naresh Arora of “Idea Box,” which manages the party’s election strategy.
Rahul Navin in Line for CBDT Top Post
The tenure of ED Director Rahul Navin is also set to end in the coming months. Sources suggest he may be appointed as the next Chairman of the CBDT, replacing Ravi Agrawal. Ravi Agrawal, a 1988-batch IRS officer, is due to complete his term in June 2026. Around the same time, the ED Director’s tenure will also conclude, making Navin a strong contender for this significant new role.
