Tridib Raman
Although Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar has filed his nomination for the Rajya Sabha from Bihar under pressure from BJP, his heart still seems to remain in Bihar; he does not wish to leave the state. Supporters of Nitish largely hold the same view: if the people of Bihar have given him a mandate until 2030, then why should he leave Bihar? It is believed that earlier as well he had received an offer from the BJP leadership for the post of Vice President, but Nitish declined it. He has held the position of Chief Minister of Bihar for nearly 20 years. His party has 85 MLAs and 12 Members of Parliament in the Lok Sabha, so why would he leave Bihar after 37 years and go to Delhi? It is also being suggested that his sudden filing of nomination papers for the Rajya Sabha on March 5 was a decision taken under pressure, because on that very day he was reportedly planning to make a major announcement about bringing his son Nishant into active politics. Sources claim that Delhi has gathered certain concrete evidence against the son whom Nitish holds very dear, and if the CBI were to investigate the matter thoroughly, the “parrot” (a metaphor for his beloved son) might have to leave his golden cage and face imprisonment. However, sources also indicate that opposition to Nitish has been gradually taking shape. Therefore, Delhi has now reportedly abandoned pressure tactics and placed a big proposal before Nitish. If sources are to be believed, Delhi has proposed to make Nitish the Deputy Prime Minister if he agrees to leave Bihar and go to Delhi.The BJP is believed to have its eyes on Nitish Kumar’s traditional vote bank in Bihar, which includes women voters, non-Yadav OBCs, and nearly 36 percent of the Extremely Backward Classes (EBC) population. By installing its own Chief Minister, the BJP could attempt to consolidate this vote bank. However, there is also the possibility that if Nitish leaves Bihar for Delhi, this vote base may fragment and drift toward other parties. Therefore, the BJP is reportedly planning to organize a Bihar tour for Nitish’s son Nishant, so that his father’s cadre-based support could shift toward the son. Meanwhile, Nitish’s close bureaucratic associate Manish Verma had been advising him to send his son Nishant to the Rajya Sabha in his place. However, under the changed circumstances, Nitish Kumar’s unopposed election to the Rajya Sabha now appears almost certain.
Did Arif Already Know About His Departure?
Tridib Raman
Was the script of the sudden farewell of Bihar’s former Governor Arif Mohammad Khan written all of a sudden, or was he aware of his departure beforehand? According to reliable sources, Arif had realized about a fortnight earlier that ‘his governorship could be taken away’. It is said that after this, the painting and whitewashing of his bungalow, located in a very affluent area of South Delhi, began. When some journalists got wind of this, people close to Arif told them that a private library was being prepared for “His Excellency.” Sources associated with him tried to dismiss such speculation, stating that for the moment he had no intention of returning to Delhi. Then what happened that one day, quite suddenly and without any planned schedule, Arif left for a vacation at an undisclosed location? It is believed that Arif had direct access to Prime Minister Narendra Modi, and that Modi also held him in high regard. Sources also claim that from the very top leadership of the BJP he had received assurances that after Bihar he might be sent to West Bengal as Governor. Therefore, it is unlikely that any suspicion had arisen in his mind that he could be removed so abruptly. Political observers suggest that in Bihar this time “Operation Lotus” was entirely under the command of the BJP’s chief strategist, who reportedly did not share a particularly cordial relationship with Arif. On the other hand, Arif was, at his core, a personality steeped in politics, who had mastery in maintaining political balance. In Bihar too, he enjoyed cordial relations with both Lalu Prasad Yadav and Nitish Kumar. Thus, the BJP leadership feared that if the removal of Nitish triggered a major political controversy, then during that transitional phase Arif might be able to create unexpected political equations, in other words, he could act as a bridge of dialogue between Lalu and Nitish. Moreover, Nitish is known for his political turnarounds, so if pressured by the BJP he might once again begin searching for his political future under the light of the “lantern”. On the other hand, if there is a major split in the JD(U) due to the changed circumstances, Arif might appear as an obstacle in the path of benefiting the BJP. Meanwhile, the newly appointed Governor of Bihar, Syed Ata Hasnain, who has a military background, is more likely to believe in functioning according to the ‘rulebook’, which is more favourable for BJP. In this matter, Arif’s perspective could have been much more independent and politically driven; this was a major reason that sealed the fate of Arif’s departure.
What Does BJP Expect from the New Governor?
Tridib Raman
When the Union Home Minister recently visited Seemanchal in Bihar for a three-day tour, the murmurs of “Operation Lotus” began to intensify. The BJP and the RSS have long wanted to cultivate a new strategy in Bihar, under which the target is four Muslim-majority districts of the Seemanchal region. These four districts are Katihar, Purnia, Kishanganj, and Araria. The BJP’s intention is to consolidate Muslim-dominated areas of these districts and combine them with Muslim-majority blocks from Malda and Dinajpur in West Bengal, and prepare a blueprint for a Union Territory. The objective behind such a plan would be to reduce the decisive influence of Muslim voters in future elections in Bihar and West Bengal. Sources claim that the BJP leadership has entrusted Bihar’s new Governor with the important responsibility of advancing this Union Territory proposal and beginning groundwork for it at the grassroots level.
Don’t Underestimate Sandhu, My Friend
Tridib Raman
Vinai Kumar Saxena, who served as Lieutenant Governor of Delhi for about four years, was suddenly transferred to Ladakh in a hurry, and political observers are still trying to understand the exact reason behind this move. After all, Saxena had done everything possible to prepare a roadmap for the BJP’s return to power in Delhi. No one can underestimate his role in the effort to re-establish the BJP in Delhi and challenge the well-entrenched Aam Aadmi Party government. Now let us talk about Taranjit Singh Sandhu, the former Indian diplomat who has replaced Saxena as Delhi’s Lieutenant Governor. Sandhu is considered a favourite of both the RSS and the BJP. In the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, he contested from Amritsar on a BJP ticket, though he failed to secure victory. Formerly India’s ambassador to the United States, Sandhu’s appointment as Delhi’s Lieutenant Governor is considered nothing short of remarkable. It is widely believed that Shiromani Akali Dal leader Sukhbir Singh Badal played a significant role in lobbying for Sandhu this time. Some also say that Sandhu helped facilitate electoral alliance talks between the Akali Dal and BJP. Observers believe that Sandhu still has deep connections with the current US administration. So, his real test lies in resolving the complicated knots in India-US relations, and Delhi has already placed far greater expectations on him in this regard.
Stalin Moves to Restrict RSS-Linked Programs
Tridib Raman
Last week, the Stalin government in Tamil Nadu took a major decision, announcing that ‘political’ and ‘collective activities’ will no longer be allowed on the campuses of private schools and educational institutions in the state. The government believes that school campuses, auditoriums, and their open grounds should be used only for school education and related activities. The state government’s School Education Department has issued necessary instructions to all schools in the state in this regard. The Stalin government believes that school infrastructure is meant solely and exclusively for the welfare and education of students, and it cannot be rented out to any external individual or organization. Sources believe that with the kind of increase in the activities of RSS-affiliated organizations like Seva Bharati and Vidya Bharati at this election time, the number of their gatherings in school premises was continuously increasing, which worried the Stalin government. The state government began to feel that organizations like the RSS-backed Seva Bharati and Vidya Bharati were propagating a particular ideology in the name of ‘character building sessions’. Consequently, Stalin concluded that this trend needed to be curbed immediately, and the government acted accordingly.
Dhami Gets the Nod
Amit Shah was on a tour of Uttarakhand on Saturday, where he was scheduled to inaugurate and lay the foundation stones for various projects costing over ₹1,100 crore. According to sources, the real motive behind the BJP Chanakya’s visit to Uttarakhand is to unite the various factions within the state BJP and prepare them for the upcoming elections. It is understood that Chief Minister Pushkar Singh Dhami has received a vote of confidence (abhaydan) from the BJP’s top leadership, and it has been more or less decided that no matter how much anti-Dhami sentiment is simmering in the state, the CM will not be changed there. This means the BJP has now geared up once again to prepare for the upcoming Uttarakhand elections under Dhami’s leadership.
