Tridib Raman
The Modi Government 3.0 has completed a record two years in office. Once again, the rumour mill is heating up that in the coming days, or around the Monsoon Session of Parliament, the Modi Cabinet may get some new faces. If one listens closely to the whispers in political corridors, there are indications of two major changes in the cabinet. One name doing the rounds for the next Finance Minister is former RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das. It is well known that Prime Minister Modi personally likes Das a great deal. PM’s Principal Secretary Pramod Kumar Mishra (PK Mishra) is playing a significant role in pushing Das’s name forward. Shaktikanta Das is currently serving as Principal Secretary 2 in the Prime Minister’s Office and is handling PMO responsibilities alongside PK Mishra. Earlier, he has served as a member of the 15th Finance Commission and as India’s G20 Sherpa from November 2017 to December 2018. The thinking behind replacing the current Finance Minister appears to be that the country’s present economic policy is facing several new challenges. Issues like the Middle East crisis and rising inflation could impact the upcoming elections in seven states. Therefore, even if only for optics, the government feels the need to change the face of its economic leadership. Sources also say that Shaktikanta Das is currently not showing much enthusiasm for this new role, but it is believed that the task of persuading him has also been entrusted to PK Mishra. Additionally, Union Human Resource Development Minister Dharmendra Pradhan is under fire from the opposition and the youth (especially Gen Z) due to the UGC, NEET paper leak, and irregularities in CBSE examinations. It is possible that he may be removed from the government and given an important role in the party organisation. According to sources, the BJP’s Chanakya wants to bring his close confidant Vinod Tawde to this post. Tawde is currently serving as a BJP General Secretary. Several other ministers could also be dropped based on their report cards. Some ministers have already been eased out such as Ravneet Singh Bittu from Punjab and George Kurien from Kerala, who have not been given Rajya Sabha tickets this time. It is considered certain that both will exit the Modi Cabinet. Bittu has been asked by the BJP to prepare for the Punjab Assembly elections. Meanwhile, two Ministers of State in the Modi government, Pankaj Chaudhary (assigned UP responsibilities) and Harsh Malhotra (assigned Delhi BJP responsibilities), have been given organisational roles. Hardeep Singh Puri’s Rajya Sabha term is also ending in November. If he does not get another term, his exit from the Modi Cabinet is considered only a matter of time. However, one thing is clear: in the next cabinet reshuffle, the mathematics and political equations of the upcoming elections in the seven states will also be kept in mind, and more MPs from these election-bound states are likely to get a chance to become ministers.
Will UP-Punjab Elections Happen Before Schedule?
Tridib Raman
After a clean sweep in Bengal and wiping out Mamata Banerjee’s party, the BJP is riding high. A section of party leaders believes that at least the Assembly elections in Uttar Pradesh and Punjab should be held before schedule. This faction is suggesting November this year for the polls. Normally, elections for UP’s 403 Assembly seats are due in February-March 2027, and Punjab’s 117 seats are also due in February 2027. At present, preparations for panchayat elections in UP are in full swing. The tenure of gram pradhan positions ended on the 26th of last month, and administrators have been appointed in their place. As for the voter list, around 2 crore names have already been deleted during the revision process. The BJP has already asked its state unit to gear up for elections. The appointment of the new state president Pankaj Chaudhary has been made keeping this in mind. Sunil Bansal is also quietly active behind the scenes. Akhilesh Yadav is preparing to launch a statewide Rath Yatra from August. The BJP’s intention behind advancing the elections is to puncture Akhilesh’s Rath Yatra. As a senior BJP leader said off the record: “At this moment, the BJP’s morale is so high that small regional parties in UP are not in a position to bargain with our top leadership. Whatever seats we give them and from wherever, they will accept.” According to sources, even Arvind Kejriwal told his core group in a meeting that elections in Punjab could be held early (in November) and has asked his party to be prepared. However, there is also a section of central BJP leaders who are not in favour of early elections in UP and Punjab. Their argument is that the current national mood is not that favourable for the BJP. The youth are suffering from unemployment, inflation is rising uncontrollably due to economic instability, and the public is not happy overall. An early election in November could prove costly. On the other hand, if elections are held in February-March, the new crop would have been harvested by then, farmers would have some money in their pockets, and people would be relatively happier. The current issues of economic instability would also have cooled down by then. Sources say that to gauge the feasibility of early elections, the BJP is going to conduct a secret opinion survey in UP and Punjab. The high command will take a final decision only after keeping the voice of the people (Janata Janardan) supreme.
Why Does BJP Want to Settle Jayant So Cheaply?
Tridib Raman
Jayant Chaudhary, who is trying to build his political persona on the legacy of Chaudhary Charan Singh, is considered a soft-natured leader. Ever since he started swimming in the saffron camp, his tendency to bargain has been largely curtailed. Although he is a Minister of State with Independent Charge in the Modi government, his ministry continues to complain about a lack of funds at all times. In the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, the BJP had only obliged him by giving him two seats. Recently, Jayant met Piyush Goyal to discuss seat-sharing for the upcoming Uttar Pradesh elections. Piyush Goyal then arranged his meeting with the saffron Chanakya. It is worth noting that Piyush Goyal is the main point of contact between Jayant and the BJP. Sources say that when Jayant reached Shah, the all-powerful BJP leader explained to him: “Since you were given only two Lok Sabha seats, your claim should be limited to around 10 seats. However, we can give you 15-17 seats in Western Uttar Pradesh.” Jayant, on the other hand, is demanding 30 seats. In the 2022 Assembly elections, when he fought in alliance with Akhilesh Yadav’s SP, he was given 33 seats, out of which his candidates could win only 8. It is said that Shah made it clear to Jayant that “this time, every single seat is important for the NDA in UP, so we want to bet only on winning candidates.” Along with this, Shah also clarified that at least three seats in Jayant’s quota would be from Muslim-dominated areas. On some of his quota seats, the BJP will follow the strategy of “Symbol yours, candidate ours” and field its own winning candidates. Though Jayant is not entirely satisfied with this proposal, he has limited options. After returning from the meeting with Shah, Jayant met Piyush Goyal again, who tried to reassure him that the BJP would fully take care of his interests. The party will try to give him a better ministry in the next cabinet reshuffle. Jayant, having bowed to the saffron trust, is currently waiting patiently for better times.
Can Siddaramaiah spoil DK’s game?
Tridib Raman
Even though former Congress Chief Minister of Karnataka Siddaramaiah has lost the CM’s chair, he has still not lost courage. Even though on Rahul Gandhi’s insistence he has given up the post of Chief Minister for DK Shivkumar, his heart is still attached to the same chair somewhere. Rama Linga Reddy, who was one of Siddaramaiah’s close associates, resigned from the DK cabinet after not being given the ministry of his choice, so whether it is KH Munirappa or Krishna Byre Gowda, if these senior Congress leaders and ministers have raised the flag of rebellion against their own Chief Minister, then it is said from behind the scenes that they have got the blessings of Siddaramaiah. Reliable sources claim that Siddaramaiah has recently spoken to JDS leader Kumaraswamy and extended his hand of friendship towards him. It is said that Siddaramaiah still has the support of at least 30-35 Congress MLAs. Sources also claim that due to the efforts of Kumaraswamy, an important meeting of Siddaramaiah has been fixed with BJP Chanakya in Delhi on 18-19 June. BJP’s effort is that if Siddaramaiah gathers the support of two-thirds of the Congress MLAs, then both JDS and BJP can support him to form the government. But it will not be easy for this experienced OBC leader of Karnataka to do this, because in the 224-member Karnataka Assembly, Congress has 135 MLAs, BJP 66 and JDS 19. DK Shivakumar is also keeping a close eye on all these developments, he will not let his MLAs break so easily, because he has something else to give to his MLAs besides trust.
What is the new model of Lok Sabha delimitation?
A new model of Lok Sabha delimitation has been presented in a study report prepared under the leadership of Dr. Shamika Ravi, a renowned economist and a full-time member of the Prime Minister’s Economic Advisory Council. It should be noted that the South Indian states had been raising hue and cry for quite some time regarding delimitation and this proposed bill had to face defeat in the House also. So, keeping in mind the objections of the South Indian states, Dr. Shamika, in this research conducted with Mukti Kapoor of the Indian Statistical Institute, has recommended reducing the total number of Lok Sabha seats to 824 by dividing the total number of Lok Sabha seats into 170 large and mostly urban areas from the total 543 Lok Sabha constituencies. The study suggested that dividing 59 constituencies into two and 111 into three could result in an increase of 0.3 to 2.3 percent in the voting percentage in the next general elections. Also, 90 lakh to 2.3 crore additional voters can participate in the voting process. The report also said that voting is relatively low in large and urban areas, and to increase the participation of women voters in voting, it has been recommended to increase the timing of ‘women’s special polling centres’ and improve transportation facilities. With this, democratic participation can be further strengthened.
Will Manpreet Badal return home?
Shiromani Akali Dal chief Sukhbir Singh Badal’s cousin and former Punjab finance minister Manpreet Singh Badal is desperate to return home. That is, they want to return to the Shiromani Akali Dal again, while they have also received a signal from the top leadership of the Congress that if they want to return to the Congress, then they are welcome. It may be recalled that Manpreet first went to the Congress from the Akali Dal, then in 2022, he also left the Congress and joined the BJP. Actually, Manpreet came to the BJP with the desire to get something big, but here he was disappointed. The BJP had entrusted him with the responsibility of improving the BJP’s performance in the municipal elections of Punjab, but when the results of these elections came, the BJP slipped to the fifth position after the AAP, Congress, Akali Dal, Independents. If he is not getting any special value in the BJP these days, then Manpreet has once again tried to change his allegiance before the Punjab Assembly elections.
Rahul Gandhi’s Kotdwar Visit Cancelled
On 4th June, Rahul Gandhi wanted to visit Kotdwar to meet Deepak Kumar alias Mohammad Deepak and even intended to take membership of his gym. However, nature had other plans, due to bad weather, Rahul could not reach Kotdwar.The entire Uttarakhand Congress unit breathed a huge sigh of relief over this. The background of the matter is that on 26th January, during a dispute in Kotdwar, Deepak Kumar, who runs a gym, took the side of an elderly Muslim shopkeeper and introduced himself as Mohammad Deepak. Later, attempts were made to give the incident a communal colour, with the ruling dispensation also being accused of involvement. However, Uttarakhand Congress leaders did not want Rahul to further fan the flames of this controversy. The reason is that Uttarakhand is still openly a state with a predominantly Hindu mindset. The BJP could have turned Rahul’s move into a major election issue. Moreover, districts in Uttar Pradesh like Bijnor, Moradabad, and Meerut, which are adjacent to Kotdwar, have a significant Muslim population. Therefore, Rahul’s step could have had a positive impact on the UP elections.
