For decades, the Global South has craved a seat at the table of a multi-polar world. Today, that craving is being met not by a polite invitation, but by the chaotic collapse of the old order. As Donald Trump pulls the ladder up into a “Fortress America,” the world is witnessing a radical shift from global policing to regional power plays
By Shailendra Kumar
Snapshots
- Sino-Russian military assertions have revitalized the global desire for a multi-polar world order, shifting away from unipolar dominance
- Europe is becoming a major geopolitical player as it expands its conventional defence powers and consolidates on all fronts
- Fifty countries, including India and the EU, attended a US-led minerals ministerial, agreeing upon a new multi-polar world order
- New Delhi joined the new geopolitical caravan, signing an FTA with the EU following a grand display on Kartavya Path
FOR decades, a multi-polar world has been an unfulfilled craving for a large swathe of Global South. Reason: Virtually ‘No Say’ in the West-dominated UN-led world order. Intensity for such yearning gathered momentum after the USSR collapsed under its own weight and many new nations were born. It further got amped up after many Global South countries, including China, immensely benefited from the caravan of globalisation – manufacturing shifted from the West, and China today accounts for 28% of global output. Economic prosperity inevitably added sinews to military muscles of many emerging economies, which birthed the propensity to react and regroup on being treated unfairly by the US – the unchallenged hegemon. The longing for a multi-polar world got a fresh impetus after China and Russia began asserting their mothballed military prowess in certain geographical pockets. A few other Global South countries, cherishing a loud dream to go nuclear, got into a scrimmage with the hegemon such as
Iran and North Korea. A few received tacit diplomatic and economic support from many after being marked as the votaries of the multi-polar world.
Of course, India is one among a lattice of aspiring countries such as China, Brazil, South Africa,
Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Germany, France, Indonesia, and Russia. The echoes of such sentiments were often heard at the UN Security Council but the forum being dysfunctional, nothing ever seemed to be making any headway. Frustrated and traumatised Global South countries floated BRICS (now BRICS Plus, and New Delhi is chairing its annual Summit this year) to question geo-economic and geopolitical decisions of America, a globally-accepted superpower because of its military, economic and financial juggernaut status a la swift system and greenback dominance. Statistically speaking, the BRICS Plus has not yet scored anything substantive to its credit. Rather it has got hobbled by regional tent politics and also an explicit race to its leadership mantle. It may hit a tripwire sooner unless ‘detox’ measures are taken.
POTUS has almost killed the effectiveness of the WTO, but has quietly paid its subscription dues of USD 25 million to the global trade regulator, and has not withdrawn from the International Maritime Organisation. However, America’s closest ally today, Israel, has gone
the Trump way!
WEAPONISATION OF TARIFFS
Anyway, meanwhile, Donald Trump made a comeback to the Oval Office. And the fulcrum of his
personalistic foreign policy remains ‘America First’, rather ‘Trump First’! Voila! Not even his Republican Party! As part of his ‘America First’ strategy, he unleashed the demon of universal tariffs, not only against his foes but also against his strategic allies, oh no, with more vengeance. He has clearly stated that he does not care for the time-tested foreign policy doctrine of forging alliances with like-minded nations. He has rather uttered too much vitriol and accused them of riding on America’s back and benefiting at the cost of American taxpayers.
Going by his administration’s diplomatic and military ado, it is beyond qualms that Trump has decided to focus only on Western hemisphere. The loose cannons released from his acidic tongue, first, targeted Canada, Panama, and Greenland. Pulling a face, he threatened to take over the Panama Canal on multiple pantomime grounds. He then famously romanticised to make Canada 51st State of the United States of America, sending icy chills down the spine of Canadians. Alberta far-right separatists, dreaming of an independent country, are already hobnobbing with the US treasury officials. Immensely umbrageous but Trump found it less droll. And irked Canadian Prime Minister, a fainter shadow of POTUS, recently walked an indirect tirade against crabby Trump at Davos. And he has become anti-Trump darling with his
call to middle powers to band against the prevailing ruptured global order. And how Trump has reacted is to threaten levies and de-certification of Canada’s Bombardier Business jets on alleged grounds of preventing sale of Gulfstream products. Anyway, in a sudden pivot, Trump has expressed his craving to acquire Greenland at any cost.
His ‘Liberation Day’ tariffs focussed on America’s neighbours like Mexico, Canada, Brazil and others. Soon the tariff-fire enveloped allies across the world. Those who demonstrated supplicatory demeanour, managed to contain the fire with lower tariffs with a few exemptions for goods, acutely needed by the American industries and consumers. For instance, civility, for once, did not spill into servility and Canada and Brazil chose not to succumb to his devilish pressure but were slapped with back-breaking tariffs. India and China did not kowtow to his whims and were smacked with mind-numbing tariffs. China managed to bargain lower rates by strangulating his Jugular vein a la rare earths episode! Argentina and Mexico managed to win over him and were rewarded with lower tariffs. It appears that if his tariffs fail to survive the legal scalpel of the US Supreme Court, he may resort to some sort of back-up tariff measures.
Juddery times lie ahead for the planet.
GUNBOAT CAPITALISM
Even before the world could learn to make peace with his fanciful and whimsical tariffs, he spread his hemispheric dragnet in the Caribbean seas and began gunning Venezuelan boats on unsubstantiated ground of narco-smuggling. He aired a series of allegations against the Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, who was his ‘favourite’ eyesore even during his first term. Though no evidence was ever shared either with the UNSC or other forums, he alleged that Maduro was the actor behind the narco trade cartel. And he did what he was never believed to be capable of doing. His Delta Force abducted Maduro and his wife and presented him handcuffed before a New York Court on drug trafficking charges. Without losing a
day, he announced how he is going to control Venezuela’s oil industry for the benefits of America rather than shepherding a transition to democracy! Holy POTUS! This is another naked example of ‘gunboat capitalism’! Anyway, what was always construed as his bluster, finally changed his image as a doer of a few things out of many he often speaks about. Even before the smokescreen over Venezuela, which promises to be a major quagmire for the US, could clear, he rebooted his sleepy obsession and floated a new charade – he wants to swallow icy but ‘spoonable’ Greenland and the military option is very much on the table! A toe-curling ‘bomb’ with the depth of serious dig-in! It was a double jeopardy for the already petrified world – frightened China took a week to condemn the Venezuelan episode in explicit communique.
One of his national security objectives as stated by Trump is that Russia and China are going to take over the Arctic island sooner, and that would pose a fatal threat to the US security interests. Hence, he wants to pre-empt all such hostile attempts by annexing the Danish territory himself! What a cozy solution to an intriguing territorial issue – unparalleled, indeed! A bitter pill of ‘Western hypocrisy’ for Europe.
However, the dilemma is – Denmark is also a member of NATO like the US. And this has scared Europe, which is already under tremendous stress because of the Ukrainian albatross around its neck, and also the fact that Europe is presently underinvested to defend itself against any Russian misadventure. Secondly, optics-driven Trump has repeatedly stated that the US does not need NATO as he is, at least on the face, certain that whenever the US may need it, NATO would not come to its rescue. Therefore, he does not mind sending his special forces to take over Greenland if Denmark does not cede to his outright purchase offer. Going by a number of foreign policy decisions, it would be foolhardy to construe his threat as hollow. For instance, Canada is suddenly confronted by a strategic nightmare, besieged by a hostile neighbour from three sides. If the US controls the Arctic, it would be completely surrounded. Hence, its
leaders have recently begun talking about going nuclear as they fear that Trump may one day try to make it the 52nd State of the US! Against the rising silhouette of scary spectre, Europe, albeit defiant, presently feels compelled to kiss the ring of the king as he may suspend all support to Ukraine and hasten dismemberment of NATO!
ULTILATERAL EXODUS
In fact, Trump has consistently been contracting the American sphere of influence and limiting it to Western hemisphere. The US has no more appetite to play a global-sized role. Only recently, he signed an Executive Order to passage out America from dozens of UN bodies and other international forums. Some of the notable global forums are the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change; the UN Population Fund, the International Union for Conservation of Nature, the International Trade Centre, and many others relating to renewable energy, education, development, environment, and promotion of democracy and human rights. Good news for Beijing, which may not, now, be slammed with bouts of indictments of its policy against Muslim population. The US would also pull out of the Green Climate Fund. No more desire to fund poor countries and also trust in climate diplomacy. In total, America would
exit from 65 global institutions, including 31 UN bodies. Trump loves to describe climate change as a ‘con job’ despite being the second largest emitter of carbon after China!
Frustrated and traumatised Global South countries floated BRICS (now BRICS Plus) to question geo-economic and geopolitical decisions of America, but the group has not yet scored anything substantive to its credit
Interestingly, he has almost killed the effectiveness of the WTO by making its appellate forum
dysfunctional but last October, the US quietly paid its subscription dues of USD 25 million as Trump probably thinks that there is still some juice left to be squeezed out of the global trade regulator! Similarly, POTUS has not withdrawn from the International Maritime Organisation (IMO), which takes many critical decisions relating to the shipping industry. However, interestingly, America’s closest ally today, Israel, has also gone the Trump way! It has announced that it would also withdraw from all UN entities. It appears that in the days to come, many more such members of the US tent would do so to hasten the demise of the US-led world order!
What message the Global South may decode from his recent actions and statements? The US is no longer keen to do global policing job with the exception of Iran, which is an arch enemy of Israel, a US-led ‘tent subscriber’. Intriguingly, he recently abandoned two of his Asian allies, Japan and Taiwan, when both confronted extremely vile actions from Beijing. Clearly, the US has already begun dismantling post-1945 global order and also institutions sculpted to underpin such an order. If the US itself shrinks to a self-demarcated limited sphere, the global landscape is left open to other geopolitical powers to build their own spheres of influence. China has been on this job for a pretty protracted period of time a la SCO, ASEAN and BRICS Plus. Taking a cue from Trump, Beijing may like to flex its naval muscles against its neighbours like Japan, Philippines, Vietnam and other East Asian countries and consolidate the Sinosphere. Russia, which has built a close nexus with China in the recent past, has also been strategising to expand its rapidly-shrivelling sphere of influence a la NATO’s expansion. Till the time Russia and China’s interests do not come into conflict, they may share certain members belonging to
both the camps. Alas! Both, Russia and China, have just lost a staunch ally in Venezuela. In fact, Russia is on the cusp of losing another ally in Cuba, which is facing a strangulating oil blockade from the US. Trump has threatened to impose tariffs if any country supplies oil to Havana, which has already run out of jet fuel.
Other countries like India, Brazil, Indonesia and South Africa, will continue to act like important pillars and doing trade with all the tents, avoiding diplomatic cortisol getting turbocharged. Europe would finally decouple with the US (much sooner if NATO is dead) and would certainly pop up as another important pole of geopolitical power as it continues to expand its conventional defence powers and consolidate on all fronts. Bulgaria, a member of the Russian camp, has just joined the EU, which has lately realised to invest frenetically into its own strategic autonomy. And the European defence factories are humming with round-the-clock activities. Britain, part of the larger European security paradigm, has just reset its ties with
China and has clearly sided with its European peer groups rather than the US on the flared-up Greenland issue. In fact, Trump has openly railed against Britain to be getting into business with Beijing. Notwithstanding the queer flavour of the US diplomacy, the world is not so averse to plurilateralism. And one such recent example is the US-led critical minerals ministerial in Washington, which was attended by representatives of 50 countries, including India and EU. And a new supply chain minus China was agreed upon.
The US has already begun dismantling the post-1945 global order, and China and Russia are trying to build their own spheres of influence
INDIA’S HIGH-WIRE ACT
Thus would emerge a new world order with multiple poles. But, high-wire diplomatic skills would be required to ensure that it does not go out of kilter sooner. Let’s wait and watch as a new global order is still in the making! And there are chances that the present international institutions may redeemably survive in a different sartorial appearance! Let’s also believe that New Delhi is not going to miss embarking on the new geopolitical caravan this time! Yes, mutual back-scratching and rapid Grokking are going to be critical policies of India. The recently-signed FTA with EU in New Delhi after a pomp show on ‘Kartavya Path’ is a good pointer to such a reality! In days to come, India is likely to band with other middle powers as advocated by the Canadian Prime Minister, Mark Carney, who is scheduled to visit New Delhi next month. Oui, the need of the hour is Trump-proofing and de-risking from China. India needs to keep undergirding its Teflon coating. Au revoir!
