Tridib Raman
The first phase of Bihar’s election witnessed a massive voter turnout of around 65%, which both the ruling and opposition alliances are claiming as their own victory. Although the first phase covered regions traditionally considered NDA strongholds, the Mahagathbandhan is visibly buoyed by the unexpectedly high voting percentage. They interpret it as a signal of change against the ruling establishment, while the BJP-led NDA sees it as a show of continued public trust and synchronization with their agenda. BJP claims it successfully brought back a large number of migrant Bihari voters to participate this time, an effort that, according to reports, both the party and RSS have been working on for over a year. Even though the “SIR” process reportedly led to the removal of about 70 Lakh names from the voter list, the high enthusiasm among women and young voters on polling day told a different story. The Mahagathbandhan believes the youth vote has swung in its favour, while the NDA insists that women voters have come out strongly in support of Nitish Kumar. According to intelligence sources, internal reports from the IB suggest a very close contest, with a slight edge to the NDA. Yet, the same data also shows that the Mahagathbandhan has made a significant comeback compared to 2020, particularly in this first phase. Interestingly, several prominent NDA leaders are reportedly in tough battles this time, including Ram Kripal Yadav, Vijay Sinha, Vijay Choudhary, Sanjay Sarawgi, and Mangal Pandey. Samrat Choudhary, too, is said to be facing internal sabotage from within his own ranks. Even in Samastipur and Darbhanga, areas long considered NDA bastions, Mahagathbandhan candidates are putting up unexpectedly strong fights, suggesting neck-and-neck contests in several seats.The MY (Muslim-Yadav) equation, the long-standing base of Lalu Yadav’s RJD, appears firmly united this time. Together, these communities make up around 33% of Bihar’s electorate. If Tejashwi Yadav manages to attract a few other castes beyond this core base, the ‘lantern’ (RJD symbol) could indeed shine bright enough to dazzle the opposition. Meanwhile, Prashant Kishor’s Jan Suraaj movement, despite generating significant buzz, doesn’t seem to have translated that noise into votes. PK failed to make a dent among Muslim, OBC, or EBC voters, and while some upper-caste voters did show mild interest in his candidates, those were largely votes that would otherwise go to the NDA. It seems that over the years, Rahul Gandhi has learned a few tricks of political showmanship from PM Modi. His timed exposé on alleged vote manipulation in the Haryana polls just before Bihar’s election managed to stir youth and Gen Z voters, tapping into their frustration with the system. How far that sentiment actually converts into anti-establishment votes, however, will only become clear on November 14, when the results are out. Would you like me to provide an analysis or prediction based on current political trends and past voting patterns in Bihar as well?
Could Modi’s Plan Prove to be a Game-changer?
Tridib Raman
On the chessboard of political checkmate, PM Modi has a keen understanding of the utility, aggressiveness, and timeliness of each of his pawns. So, as soon as he sensed that the electoral wind in Bihar might shift due to some other maneuver, he swiftly took complete charge of the election campaign there. Nitish Kumar, who was gradually being sidelined in the saffron strategy, was brought back to the center stage of the main platform. In areas where large, glossy BJP posters were displayed, Nitish’s posters were put up overnight. A message was also circulating, knowingly or unknowingly, within the JDU cadre that the BJP leadership was favoring Lallan Singh more than Nitish. To dismantle this narrative, the services of the devout media were hastily enlisted, and a race began to portray Lallan as an antagonist for the statements he made from his position in Mokama. The BJP also made efforts to outright deny the narrative that leaders from upper castes are their natural preference. The BJP top brass had clearly realized that Nitish was extremely upset about not being declared the NDA’s CM face. He had, knowingly or unknowingly, conveyed a message to the JDU cadre that ‘even if the NDA gets a majority this time, the BJP won’t make him the Chief Minister’. Perhaps this was the reason why a deep resentment against the BJP was brewing, knowingly or unknowingly, among Nitish’s cadre and his dedicated voters. PM Modi had sensed this in time and had swung into action overnight to find a solution.
Demanding Partners Trouble BJP
The BJP is fighting on multiple fronts simultaneously in the Bihar elections and is also troubled by the unreasonable demands of its alliance partners at inconvenient times. According to sources, just before the first phase of elections, when a BJP Chanakya was about to hold a press conference in Patna, the head of one of its constituent parties came to meet him in Patna. That leader pleaded with the BJP top brass that ‘since elections are imminent and his election funds are almost exhausted, a lump sum amount should be paid per constituency for his candidates to contest the elections.’ At this, the BJP Chanakya flared up and said, ‘Even now your focus is on making money instead of winning the election. Let me show you my survey; 5 out of your 6 candidates haven’t even properly entered the fray yet. My request to you is to go, tour village to village, and fully immerse yourself in the election. Tell your candidates to work harder. Every single seat is very important for us this time.’ The leader returned home empty-handed.
Return of Gaurav to His Home of Glory
This happened about four months ago when Rahul Gandhi convened an important meeting at his New Delhi residence regarding the upcoming Assam Assembly elections. Rahul likes Gaurav Gogoi, the son of former Assam CM Tarun Gogoi, very much. Therefore, he made him a proposal: ‘If he is ready, the party could declare him, i.e., Gaurav, as its CM face and enter the electoral fray this time. He is young and has a clean image, so the Congress could benefit from this in the upcoming elections.’ Gaurav was taken aback by Rahul’s unexpected proposal and was at a loss for words. Sensing his dilemma, Rahul said, ‘Alright, you can take time to think. Anyway, we can also contest the election with a collective leadership.’ Just about a week ago, Gaurav met Rahul and told him, ‘I accept your proposal; you can declare me as the CM face if you wish.’ Rahul looked at Gaurav with surprise and then asked, ‘What happened in these four months that led you to this decision today?’ Gaurav then explained that after that meeting, he had set out on a tour of Assam. During this, while he was visiting Upper Assam, he was astonished to see the crowd at his public meeting, where he expected 10 thousand, the crowd was double that number. It is noteworthy that Upper Assam has a significant number of Ahom voters; Gaurav Gogoi himself belongs to this Ahom community. Furthermore, the largest population there is of tea garden workers. Gaurav then told Rahul, ‘In Assam, there are 18-20% Ahom voters and 4% Brahmin voters. Everyone who came to meet me said the same thing: ‘Since your father left, we Ahoms have become like orphans. Now the state’s reins are also in the hands of a Brahmin (Hemant Biswa Sarma), who doesn’t care for the Ahoms.” Then I saw that this time, even in Upper Assam, Muslim voters are completely united in favor of the Congress; they alone can win us 25-35 seats.’ This means that this time, the Congress’s prospects in Assam are much better.
Is a Global Economic Recession Coming?
Is the world heading towards a global economic crisis due to US President Donald Trump’s dictatorial economic policies? And will countries like China bear the brunt of this recession? A survey indicates that in the last three weeks, cargo ships operating between China and the US have suddenly reduced by 42%, or rather, disappeared. According to shipping tracker data, the share of these cargo or container ships alone was once around 71%. In just the last month, this figure has plummeted to just 41%, the lowest in the last 20 years. Economic analysts also believe this is not a normal situation; rather, this decline has created a ‘heart attack’-like condition in the $28 trillion global market system. This situation has arisen due to Trump’s recent tariff war, which could impact industry, employment, and investment alike. Amid the US-China tariff conflicts, many US companies had already stocked up heavily, and now these companies have also halted new orders. If by the end of November, the number of cargo ships records a drop of more than 42% and factory orders do not improve, global GDP could decline by 0.5% to 1%. This could lead the world into a new global economic crisis.
Is Chirag Paswan’s Vote Bank Eroding in Bihar?
In the Bihar elections, the Mahagathbandhan’s focus is consistently fixed on the Paswan voters of the Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas). The Mahagathbandhan wants to make a dent in this vote bank. Perhaps this is why, from the Hayaghat (Darbhanga) general seat, the Mahagathbandhan (via the Communist Party) has fielded a Paswan candidate. This is being seen as an initiative to send a positive message to Paswan voters. It is said that the Mahagathbandhan gained an immediate benefit from this move. According to one estimate, in the first phase of polling in Darbhanga alone, about 25% of Paswan voters broke away from the NDA and voted in favour of the Mahagathbandhan. Due to the cancellation of the nomination of RJD candidate Shweta Suman from the Mohania seat, Tejashwi Yadav has made a major strategic move by supporting an independent candidate, Ravi Shankar Paswan. Through this, they are trying to make inroads into the Paswan voter base. It is noteworthy that Ravi is the son of Chhedi Paswan, who is highly respected within the Dalit community. This time, the BJP has allotted 29 seats to Chirag Paswan’s party, but it is believed that in this election, it will not be easy at all for Chirag’s party to reach a double-digit figure in terms of seats won.
