Tridib Raman
The biggest saffron flag-bearer feels that someone has cast an evil eye. Now, neither the streets are silent nor is Parliament a mute spectator. There is nearly equal uproar in both places, and perhaps for the first time in 10-11 years, the central government seems to be on the ‘backfoot’ this much. Social media has been abuzz with speculation over the past few days that the biggest titan of Indian politics has been betrayed by a close friend. A deeper investigation into the matter paints a different picture. In reality, this entire battle is between External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar and National Security Advisor Ajit Doval. When the Chinese Foreign Minister visited India recently, Jaishankar was reduced to a marginal role, handling only formalities, while the crucial diplomatic and strategic dialogue was led entirely by Ajit Doval. According to sources, Jaishankar’s graph has been steadily declining since ‘Operation Sindoor.’ At that time, the PM had told him to secure the support of at least 8-10 countries like Mauritius, Sri Lanka, and Bhutan in India’s favour, but he failed to do so. Jaishankar kept assuring the PM regarding the U.S. and Trump, saying, “Don’t worry about them, I’ll handle it.” However, when Modi met Trump and mentioned Jaishankar, Trump immediately asked, “Who is Jaishankar?” He further told Modi, “Whatever we need to discuss, we can do it one-on-one.” This punctured Jaishankar’s claims of being close to the U.S., and instead, Trump continued to embarrass India. Sources suggest that the Doval camp began to suspect that rumours about Doval’s retirement and baseless stories about his son were being planted by the Jaishankar camp. Soon after, Doval’s camp too prepared for retaliation, and they targeted Jaishankar’s son, Dhruva Jaishankar, who is currently the U.S. head of the Ambani-owned Observer Research Foundation America. Allegations are being made that he leaks India’s critical strategic information to the U.S. This internal clash between Jaishankar and Doval has added to the central government’s woes.
Pawar Riding Two Boats
Tridib Raman
NCP leader Sharad Pawar’s daughter, Supriya Sule, recently met Priyanka Gandhi and offered her the NCP’s headquarters at 81, Lodhi Estate in New Delhi as a residence. It’s said that Priyanka readily accepted Supriya’s “goodwill offer.” Notably, as a first-time MP, Priyanka Gandhi was allotted a small government residence, but given the number of visitors she receives, she needed a larger house. Supriya, sensing the opportunity, offered the party’s office at 81, Lodhi Estate. In reality, Sharad Pawar has been struggling to maintain his political ground in Maharashtra for some time. Whenever he speaks with Uddhav Thackeray, the Shiv Sena chief bluntly points out Pawar’s shifting loyalties: “It is said you share such warm ties with Modi ji that you speak to him at least twice a month. He has even promised you that after the Bihar elections, your daughter will be included in his government.” Amid these murmurs, Pawar recently hosted a private dinner for a group of hand-picked journalists. In an off-the-record conversation, he reportedly said: “I believe we must now strengthen our role in the Opposition. Modi ji has already reached the peak of his popularity; now comes the time for decline. After all, when America turns relentlessly against someone, what more can be said of their future?” Perhaps it is this calculation that explains why the Pawar family is displaying such overt warmth toward the Gandhis at this juncture.
Why Are NDA’s OBC Leaders Restless?
Tridib Raman
According to sources, about two weeks ago Union Minister and Apna Dal (Sonelal) leader Anupriya Patel held a long and substantive meeting with Sanjay Nishad, who has been at the center of Mallah politics in Uttar Pradesh. During the discussion, Anupriya reportedly voiced her frustration: “In the eyes of the BJP, we hold no value. They intend to reduce us to merely 6–7 seats. And since your son also lost the election this time, your situation is even more difficult.” Nishad, too, has been keen on bringing together these smaller OBC-based parties in Uttar Pradesh under a joint platform, a move, he believes, will give them better bargaining power with the BJP leadership. In the same vein, these leaders also reached out to Union Minister Jayant Chaudhary. He was told: “We must all come together on one stage and show our collective strength. Only then can we exert real pressure on the BJP.” Chaudhary himself, insiders say, has grown somewhat disillusioned with the BJP leadership. Although he was given charge of the Skill Development Ministry, his department has not been allocated any funds for the past year. As a result, he feels more like a “minister without a portfolio.” The next step in this effort was to approach Om Prakash Rajbhar, another influential OBC leader in Uttar Pradesh, to rope him into the proposed alliance. For now, this emerging coalition of leaders has chalked out a common strategy: they will tour their respective regions, hold rallies, and launch outreach campaigns to send a clear message to the BJP that the party cannot run the government solely on the strength of upper castes; it needs the support of OBCs just as much.
Royal Rebuke for Chirag
Tridib Raman
Just three days ago, the BJP leadership summoned Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas) leader Chirag Paswan and gave him a proper dressing-down. The confusion surrounding Chirag’s stance in the Bihar elections has created uncertainty. At times, news emerges that he plans to contest all 243 seats in Bihar independently, while at other times, it’s said he might strike a seat-sharing deal with Prashant Kishor’s Jan Suraaj party. On this, BJP’s master strategist Amit Shah summoned Chirag and bluntly asked, “You’re giving contradictory statements at different places. We’re confused about what you’re actually going to do.” Chirag responded that he wants to strengthen the NDA while remaining within it, but the BJP should clarify how many seats they are willing to allocate to him. It’s said that Shah retorted, “We’ll discuss seats later. First, issue a statement confirming that you’ll contest the elections within the NDA.” The backdrop to this entire episode is an internal survey conducted by the BJP. Sources reveal that the BJP recently carried out a survey in Bihar to gauge the political temperature after the “SIR” controversy and the vote theft uproar. The survey results indicate that if the BJP contests all seats on its own in the upcoming elections, it might be limited to 70-75 seats. However, if it allies with Chirag’s Lok Janshakti Party, it could gain an additional 10 seats. But if it contests with JD(U), it could come close to the majority mark. Meanwhile, Nitish Kumar has made it clear to the BJP leadership, saying, “Whether Chirag Paswan stays or leaves the alliance won’t make a significant difference. If the BJP wants to allocate seats to Chirag, they should do so from their own quota.”
Where Has Dhankhar’s Influence Gone?
It’s been a month, but former Vice President Jagdeep Dhankhar is nowhere to be seen. He’s been avoiding meeting or interacting with anyone. It’s said that last week, a group of Jat leaders from western Uttar Pradesh visited his residence to meet him. They were seated with respect, served tea and snacks, and later informed that Dhankhar is currently not meeting anyone, but they would be called once he resumes such interactions. However, the mystery remains unsolved: why has the BJP high command suddenly shown him the door? A trusted source close to Dhankhar claims that ever since the opposition, particularly Congress, threatened to bring an impeachment motion against him, Dhankhar had been actively engaging with opposition leaders. His overtures, especially towards Rahul Gandhi, did not sit well with the BJP leadership. He was meeting TMC leaders, Arvind Kejriwal, and reportedly telling them, “There’s a brain drain and money drain happening. If you don’t fix the situation now, it will become extremely difficult later.” Sources also claim that he advised a prominent Congress leader to hold talks with leaders like Chandrababu Naidu and Eknath Shinde. It’s said that a senior Delhi-based leader, considered the BJP’s “B-team,” leaked details of Dhankhar’s intentions to the BJP top brass. This leader also alleged that Dhankhar was helping to form a faction of 300 opposition MPs. Infuriated, the BJP leadership scripted Dhankhar’s exit.
Congress Gears Up for a Serious Contest in Bihar Elections
For the first time in years, the Congress appears determined to enter the Bihar battlefield in an organized and forceful manner. Sources say that Congress has handed over a list of its potential candidates to Tejashwi Yadav. It is believed that this list includes 6-7 seats from the Kosi region. While Tejashwi reportedly has no major objections to the other seats on the list, he is unwilling to part with the Kosi seats in Congress’s favour. Tejashwi believes that the Congress is indirectly seeking these seats for Pappu Yadav. Rahul Gandhi’s “Vote Adhikar Yatra” in Bihar, which began in Bihar on August 17, is in full swing. The success or failure of this yatra will determine how much bargaining power Rahul has in negotiating with Tejashwi over the Kosi region seats. For now, Rahul appears elated with the response he is receiving in Bihar.
